4001 Cosmos St · Waco, TX 76655

$229,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2024 6,882 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Have you been looking for a recently built home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths? Well, you have found it! Welcome to this one story home that checks all the boxes!! Located in the Park Meadows neighborhood, this home features a spacious living room with large windows to the backyard, a great kitchen with center island and breakfast area, and a primary bedroom suite with a full size shower and convenient primary closet. There are 2 additional bedrooms which share the additional second full bath. Whether you prefer to relax on your covered back patio or drink your coffee in the light and bright breakfast area, you'll love the lifestyle this home affords you. Come check it out today! This property

Key facts

• Large windows
• Great kitchen
• Center island

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GREAT KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• BREAKFAST AREA
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-271/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Hill El (611 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,481
• Equity at exit: $34,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,760
• Equity at exit: $19,843

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,206/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $225,505

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $42	+0% $-23	+5% $-88	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-110	+0% $-23	+5% $65	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $36	base $-23	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $229,500 Pending 75 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,206 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,206 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$5,206
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$4,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$968
• After-tax cash flow: $696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $229,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $239,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $252,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1698.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,206 · +1698.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.