131 Lemon St · Buffalo, NY 14204

$98,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot $79/sqft · 48% below area Est $189k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 131 Lemon Street! This property is ready for its next owner! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is perfectly situated for convenience, offering easy access to the Medical Corridor and all the amenities. Ready for you to make it your own.

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 181 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,354/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $99k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.29%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,741
• List price: $98,900
• Delta: -47.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Locust St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,397 (+11%)	13mo	$120,000	$86	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $71,235
• Equity at exit: $14,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $192,558
• Equity at exit: $8,551

Cash invested: $27,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14204

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $286/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $1,276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $739

Max offer price $98,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,725
• Closing costs: $2,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	24d	1	0.64mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	44d	1	0.65mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	0.69mi
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	24d	1	0.95mi
21 College St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	24d	1	1.00mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	3d	1	1.05mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	14d	1	1.05mi
217 W Tupper St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	44d	1	1.06mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	1.14mi
31 Norwood Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	12d	1	1.19mi
118 Ashland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	14d	1	1.23mi
190 Whitney Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1180	$1,550	$1.31	44d	1	1.28mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	1.38mi
124 Normal Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1727	$2,000	$1.16	24d	1	1.44mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	1.45mi
237 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1608	$4,035	$2.51	2d	9	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $98,900 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $98,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-02-24
   price $98,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to 131 Lemon Street! This property is ready for its next owner! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is perfectly situated for convenience, offering easy access to the Medical Corridor and all the amenities. Ready for you to make it your own.

4. 2026-01-15
   price $109,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to 131 Lemon Street! This property is ready for its next owner! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is perfectly situated for convenience, offering easy access to the Medical Corridor and all the amenities. Ready for you to make it your own.

5. 2026-01-13
   price $111,000 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to 131 Lemon Street! This property is ready for its next owner! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is perfectly situated for convenience, offering easy access to the Medical Corridor and all the amenities. Ready for you to make it your own.

6. 2025-12-01
   listed $125,000 Active 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Welcome to 131 Lemon Street! This property is ready for its next owner! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home is perfectly situated for convenience, offering easy access to the Medical Corridor and all the amenities. Ready for you to make it your own.

7. 2018-05-25
   soldstatus $33,000 Closed Sale or Rented 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   VR Pricing. Sellers will consider offers between $40,000 and $55,000. Great investment opportunity! Currently rented for $600 per month.

8. 2018-05-18
   soldstatus $33,000
9. 2018-04-24
   status Pending Sale 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   VR Pricing. Sellers will consider offers between $40,000 and $55,000. Great investment opportunity! Currently rented for $600 per month.

10. 2018-04-12
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    VR Pricing. Sellers will consider offers between $40,000 and $55,000. Great investment opportunity! Currently rented for $600 per month.

11. 2018-04-04
    price $40,000 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    VR Pricing. Sellers will consider offers between $40,000 and $55,000. Great investment opportunity! Currently rented for $600 per month.

12. 2018-03-28
    price $54,900 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    VR Pricing. Sellers will consider offers between $40,000 and $55,000. Great investment opportunity! Currently rented for $600 per month.

13. 2017-12-08
    listed $55,900 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    VR Pricing. Sellers will consider offers between $40,000 and $55,000. Great investment opportunity! Currently rented for $600 per month.

14. 2017-12-07
    historical
15. 2017-07-27
    price $55,900
16. 2017-07-19
    price $56,900
17. 2017-06-28
    price $57,900
18. 2017-06-16
    price $63,900
19. 2017-05-23
    listed $64,900 Active
20. 2013-07-12
    listed $24,900
21. 2012-09-26
    listed $24,900
22. 2007-06-22
    soldstatus $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $286 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $979 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 242.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,540
• − Property taxes: −$286
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$2,877
• Taxable income: $14,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,487
• After-tax cash flow: $11,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,932
• Household income: $28,182
• Rent vs Own: 73.5% rent · 26.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 945.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 312.6232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $98,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $111,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-25 Sold (MLS) $33,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-04-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-04-04 Price Changed $40,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-03-28 Price Changed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-12-08 Listed $55,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-12-07 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-07-27 Price Changed $55,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-07-19 Price Changed $56,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-06-28 Price Changed $57,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-06-16 Price Changed $63,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-05-23 Listed $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-07-12 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-09-26 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $286 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.