409 N Lakewood Ave · Baltimore, MD 21224

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Townhouse public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1920 1,344 sqft lot Est $263k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the newly remodeled 409 N Lakewood. This home is the perfect fit for the buyer on a budget looking to get into the upcoming McElderry Park neighborhood, or a no-brainer for a savvy investor looking to add to a rental portfolio. This home has had a fresh facelift and is ready for you to move in, with new flooring, HVAC, and water heater, and brand-new appliances coming soon. Why rent when you can own? Close to Patterson Park, McElderry Park, Johns Hopkins, with easy commuter access to 95!

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $165k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 N Luzerne Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,372 (+2%)	1mo	$120,000	$87	86
145 N Milton Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,353 (+1%)	1mo	$260,000	$192	85
2435 Jefferson St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (-6%)	1mo	$140,000	$111	75
410 N Chester St	0.47mi	2/1.5	1,260 (-6%)	0mo	$180,000	$143	65
36 N Decker Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+6%)	0mo	$325,000	$227	65
280 S Robinson St	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,282 (-5%)	1mo	$294,000	$229	63
122 Ellwood Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	0mo	$235,000	$196	60
410 N Patterson Park Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,180 (-12%)	0mo	$180,000	$153	59
1009 N Washington St N	0.72mi	2/2.5	1,386 (+3%)	0mo	$235,000	$170	55
14 N Wolfe St N	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,424 (+6%)	1mo	$292,000	$205	54
18 S Washington St	0.65mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,410 (+5%)	0mo	$318,000	$226	48
219 S Washington St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+7%)	0mo	$350,000	$244	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,161
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,978
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21224

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,350

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 N Belnord Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	23d	1	0.04mi
415 N Glover St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,600	$1.47	23d	1	0.05mi
218 N Glover St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	43d	1	0.08mi
2800 Orleans St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,600	$1.14	17d	1	0.09mi
2800 Orleans St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	0.09mi
233 N Luzerne Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,250	$1.32	21d	1	0.09mi
225 N Luzerne Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,350	$1.13	19d	1	0.10mi
2608 E Fayette St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	14d	1	0.10mi
2815 Orleans St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1204	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	0.11mi
537 N Lakewood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1755	$2,050	$1.17	43d	1	0.11mi
2619 E Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	43d	1	0.12mi
531 N Belnord Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	23d	1	0.12mi
227 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	2.0	4.0	1420	$1,600	$1.13	23d	1	0.13mi
233 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	934	$1,750	$1.87	17d	1	0.13mi
539 N Luzerne Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,300	$1.35	43d	1	0.14mi
230 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,545	$1.29	43d	1	0.14mi
224 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,875	$1.67	17d	1	0.15mi
127 N Glover St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1110	$2,100	$1.89	2d	1	0.15mi
2608 McElderry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,550	$1.35	23d	1	0.16mi
425 N Milton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,525	$1.27	14d	1	0.16mi
627 N Lakewood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1175	$1,900	$1.62	21d	1	0.17mi
2903 Jefferson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1609	$1,850	$1.15	43d	1	0.17mi
402 N Milton Ave Unit 402B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	950	$1,290	$1.36	43d	1	0.18mi
150 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1266	$1,850	$1.46	17d	1	0.21mi
104 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	936	$2,500	$2.67	43d	1	0.21mi
437 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.23mi
34 N Linwood Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1288	$2,400	$1.86	23d	1	0.24mi
2410 E Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	43d	1	0.24mi
9 N Luzerne Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,450	$1.78	4d	1	0.24mi
10 N Streeper St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,500	$1.74	23d	1	0.25mi
11 N Streeper St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1800	$2,600	$1.44	43d	1	0.26mi
520 N Decker Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	43d	1	0.26mi
420 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	0.26mi
2934 E Monument St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	43d	1	0.29mi
2308 Jefferson St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	907	$1,450	$1.60	43d	1	0.29mi
718 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	4d	1	0.30mi
724 N Curley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	4d	1	0.30mi
618 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,468	$1.40	43d	1	0.31mi
618 N Montford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,468	$1.40	14d	1	0.31mi
2317 E Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1315	$2,000	$1.52	12d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   price $164,900
3. 2025-12-10
   price $169,500
4. 2025-11-17
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 2025-11-14
   historical $175,000
6. 2006-02-23
   soldstatus $90,000
7. 2001-10-31
   historical
8. 2001-06-20
   listed
9. 2000-06-05
   historical
10. 1999-12-07
    listed
11. 1987-09-04
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 47.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$1,491
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $2,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $4,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $89,017
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1786.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.23%
• Current HPI: 241.284
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+371.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $164,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $169,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-14 Coming Soon $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-06-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2000-06-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-12-07 Listed — MRIS
• 1987-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.