8587 Herbert St · Shields, MI 48609

$174,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,619 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.26 ac lot Est $183k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Highest & best offer deadline, Friday 5/1/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Thomas Township - Swan Valley School district. Within walking distance to schools. Two bedroom, tri-level home with large lower level with wood stove and wet bar. Home could be converted back into a 3 bedroom. Large backyard backs up to Swan Valley Middle School, home includes a generac generator. All appliances stay, book your showing today!

Key facts

• Generac generator
• Wood stove
• Wet bar

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• LARGE LOWER LEVEL
• WOOD STOVE
• WET BAR
• LARGE BACKYARD
• GENERAC GENERATOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener and electric in garage; 2.5 garage parking spaces; Garage parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electricity connected (generator included); Natural gas connected; Phone available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential tri-level home; Built in 1965; Crawl foundation
• Construction: Aluminum and brick exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed (outbuilding); Platted lot; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen on first floor (8 x 10); Range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (13 x 21) with carpet; Second bedroom on second floor (10 x 10) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen and dining room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One first-floor lavatory (total of 2 baths/lavs)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood stove in family room); Bay window; Cable/Internet available; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $166,322 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,947
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8587 Herbert St	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,619 (0%)	1mo	$175,500	$108	99
240 Gas Light Ln	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,722 (+6%)	18mo	$165,000	$96	64
1140 S Miller Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+1%)	13mo	$215,000	$132	47
833 Fritzler Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,807 (+12%)	6mo	$200,000	$111	47
399 Sparling Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-10%)	17mo	$198,000	$135	44
8980 Valleyview Ct	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,804 (+11%)	15mo	$350,000	$194	40
208 Sparling Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,428 (-12%)	17mo	$121,900	$85	38
215 E Gloucester Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,404 (-13%)	18mo	$159,000	$113	37
845 Windrush Ct #14	0.69mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,745 (+8%)	8mo	$310,000	$178	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,692
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $13,191
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $546/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $328	+0% $278	+5% $229	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $213	+0% $278	+5% $344	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $323	base $278	+0.5pp $233	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   * Highest & best offer deadline, Friday 5/1/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Thomas Township - Swan Valley School district. Within walking distance to schools. Two bedroom, tri-level home with large lower level with wood stove and wet bar. Home could be converted back into a 3 bedroom. Large backyard backs up to Swan Valley Middle School, home includes a generac generator. All appliances stay, book your showing today!

2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   * Highest & best offer deadline, Friday 5/1/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Thomas Township - Swan Valley School district. Within walking distance to schools. Two bedroom, tri-level home with large lower level with wood stove and wet bar. Home could be converted back into a 3 bedroom. Large backyard backs up to Swan Valley Middle School, home includes a generac generator. All appliances stay, book your showing today!

3. 2026-04-27
   listed $174,900 Active 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   * Highest & best offer deadline, Friday 5/1/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Thomas Township - Swan Valley School district. Within walking distance to schools. Two bedroom, tri-level home with large lower level with wood stove and wet bar. Home could be converted back into a 3 bedroom. Large backyard backs up to Swan Valley Middle School, home includes a generac generator. All appliances stay, book your showing today!

4. 2026-04-27
   listed $174,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   * Highest & best offer deadline, Friday 5/1/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Thomas Township - Swan Valley School district. Within walking distance to schools. Two bedroom, tri-level home with large lower level with wood stove and wet bar. Home could be converted back into a 3 bedroom. Large backyard backs up to Swan Valley Middle School, home includes a generac generator. All appliances stay, book your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $546 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,074/yr (+$89/mo · 196.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$546
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $3,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $174,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $174,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $546 · -73.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.