209 Lakeview Trl · Western Lake, TX 76087

$189,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1972 0.51 ac lot $149/sqft · 15% below area Est $222k · 15% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW ROOF! Experience the simple charm of country living with peaceful lake views on just over half an acre in Western Lake Estates. This cozy 2-bed, 2-bath retreat sits right across from quiet Horseshoe Lake, giving you front-porch views of shimmering water and some of the best fishing around. Western Lake is just moments away for boating, jet-skiing, and outdoor adventure—yet you're still only 15 minutes from Weatherford. Gorgeous mature trees are sprinkled across the property, offering natural shade and a true country feel. Evenings are meant to be enjoyed around the fun firepit, perfect for spending time with friends and family. The property is fully fenced with a private gated entrance, a powered shop with generous storage, and a new 12×20 Tuff Shed with a loft for hobbies or extra space. Inside, you'll find vaulted ceilings with bold beams and a cozy fireplace topped with a stunning custom-carved mantle, giving the home warm rustic character from the moment you walk in. Durable LVP flooring runs throughout, new windows on sides, and the home offers a comfortable, move-right-in lifestyle—enjoyable as-is, the home is priced with projects in mind for those who enjoy making a place truly their own. It’s the perfect blend of immediate livability and future potential. Relax on the covered front porch while soaking in the lake views and the serenity of a protected greenspace across the road that will never be built on. Country charm, peaceful lake views, and space to make it your own—this inviting property is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Tuff shed
• Lake views
• Powered shop

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE GATED ENTRANCE
• DOG KENNEL
• POWERED SHOP
• TUFF SHED
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.9% in Western Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,506 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 649 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,360
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -15.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Pioneer Trl	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	1mo	$210,000	$182	65
345 Western Lake Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-5%)	14mo	$280,000	$233	54
465 Mesquite Trl	0.70mi	2/1.5	1,200 (-5%)	17mo	$280,000	$233	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,078
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,750
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76087

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,460/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,525

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   price $189,000 1596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1596 chars)

   BRAND NEW ROOF! Experience the simple charm of country living with peaceful lake views on just over half an acre in Western Lake Estates. This cozy 2-bed, 2-bath retreat sits right across from quiet Horseshoe Lake, giving you front-porch views of shimmering water and some of the best fishing around. Western Lake is just moments away for boating, jet-skiing, and outdoor adventure—yet you're still only 15 minutes from Weatherford. Gorgeous mature trees are sprinkled across the property, offering natural shade and a true country feel. Evenings are meant to be enjoyed around the fun firepit, perfect for spending time with friends and family. The property is fully fenced with a private gated entrance, a powered shop with generous storage, and a new 12×20 Tuff Shed with a loft for hobbies or extra space. Inside, you'll find vaulted ceilings with bold beams and a cozy fireplace topped with a stunning custom-carved mantle, giving the home warm rustic character from the moment you walk in. Durable LVP flooring runs throughout, new windows on sides, and the home offers a comfortable, move-right-in lifestyle—enjoyable as-is, the home is priced with projects in mind for those who enjoy making a place truly their own. It’s the perfect blend of immediate livability and future potential. Relax on the covered front porch while soaking in the lake views and the serenity of a protected greenspace across the road that will never be built on. Country charm, peaceful lake views, and space to make it your own—this inviting property is ready for its next chapter.

3. 2025-11-27
   listed $199,000 Active 1596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1596 chars)

   BRAND NEW ROOF! Experience the simple charm of country living with peaceful lake views on just over half an acre in Western Lake Estates. This cozy 2-bed, 2-bath retreat sits right across from quiet Horseshoe Lake, giving you front-porch views of shimmering water and some of the best fishing around. Western Lake is just moments away for boating, jet-skiing, and outdoor adventure—yet you're still only 15 minutes from Weatherford. Gorgeous mature trees are sprinkled across the property, offering natural shade and a true country feel. Evenings are meant to be enjoyed around the fun firepit, perfect for spending time with friends and family. The property is fully fenced with a private gated entrance, a powered shop with generous storage, and a new 12×20 Tuff Shed with a loft for hobbies or extra space. Inside, you'll find vaulted ceilings with bold beams and a cozy fireplace topped with a stunning custom-carved mantle, giving the home warm rustic character from the moment you walk in. Durable LVP flooring runs throughout, new windows on sides, and the home offers a comfortable, move-right-in lifestyle—enjoyable as-is, the home is priced with projects in mind for those who enjoy making a place truly their own. It’s the perfect blend of immediate livability and future potential. Relax on the covered front porch while soaking in the lake views and the serenity of a protected greenspace across the road that will never be built on. Country charm, peaceful lake views, and space to make it your own—this inviting property is ready for its next chapter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,999/yr (+$167/mo · 137.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,460
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$183
• After-tax cash flow: $2,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

Livability — Western Lake

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1506
• US rank: #25775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Western Lake, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,822
• Household income: $114,306
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.16%
• Current HPI: 214.6694
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-27 Listed $199,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,460 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.