8 Cottonwood Cir · Oroville, CA 95965

$66,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,926 sqft · Manufactured public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WANT A SPACIOUS HOME with a lovely, tree-shaded yard? This 2-bedroom, manufactured home has 1680 SF plus two Enclosed Porches, totaling over 1900 SF of living area. Each bedroom has an adjoining bathroom, and the primary bedroom has a HUGE walk-in closet. This home is in Cottonwood Estates, a Senior Park, for those 55 and older. The park is in downtown Oroville, close to medical facilities, stores, restaurants, a pharmacy, and convenient to public transportation. The yard is fenced with two gates and two storage sheds. A great place to relax or entertain. A newer Roof and HVAC system, are approximately 5 to 6 years old, and there is new carpet. The Kitchen has an electric cook top, wall ove

Key facts

• New carpet
• Newer roof
• New sink

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW CARPET
• SEPARATE ELECTRIC COOKTOP
• NEW SINK
• NEW DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Access via maintained, paved city streets
• Financial info: Land lease: $680 monthly (seller source); Manager approval required
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park: Cottonwood Estates; Community features include watersports, biking, fishing and foothills

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Driveway (asphalt); 2 uncovered parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public sewer (connected); District/public water; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry on right front; Faces north; Mobile home remains (32 x 60); Ramp to main level; Seller-provided living area
• Construction: Aluminum construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Enclosed porch; Rear porch; Deck; In-ground community gunite pool; Patio; Chain link fencing; Shed (2)

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric stove; Dishwasher; Open kitchen to family room; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Main-floor primary bedroom; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Main-floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Double pane windows; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included; 220V in laundry; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 4.6% in Oroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,136 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, cost of living D, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $460 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $58,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.75%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $47,347
• Equity at exit: $9,915

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $110,857
• Equity at exit: $5,750

Cash invested: $18,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95965

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$349
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $521

Max offer price $66,500

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,625
• Closing costs: $1,995
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1189 High St Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	13d	1	0.48mi
1481 Montgomery St Oroville, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,400	$1.67	13d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $66,500 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $66,500 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $66,500 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,500 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,500 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $66,500 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $66,500 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,100 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,100 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,100 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,100 Active 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,100 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,100 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,100 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $69,100 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $69,200
17. 2026-02-20
    status Active
18. 2026-02-08
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-02-02
    price $69,300
20. 2026-01-14
    price $69,400
21. 2025-11-13
    price $69,600
22. 2025-10-28
    price $69,800
23. 2025-10-05
    price $69,900
24. 2025-09-16
    price $75,000
25. 2025-08-15
    listed $78,000 Active
26. 2024-01-17
    historical
27. 2024-01-11
    price $78,000
28. 2023-11-07
    price $79,000
29. 2023-10-26
    price $98,000
30. 2023-10-06
    price $122,900
31. 2023-07-14
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $420 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,725
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$332
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$1,935
• Taxable income: $10,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,608
• After-tax cash flow: $8,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oroville

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #25715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oroville, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 49,684
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,181
• Household income: $53,198
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.76%
• Current HPI: 317.0277
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-48.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $69,200 CRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $69,300 CRMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $69,400 CRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $69,600 CRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $69,800 CRMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $69,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $78,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-01-11 Price Changed $78,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-26 Price Changed $98,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-06 Price Changed $122,900 CRMLS
• 2023-07-14 Listed $135,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $420 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.