9156 Collins Ave #107 · Surfside, FL 33154

$352,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Condo public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1996 $668/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo located in the heart of Surfside. This well-maintained unit offers a functional layout with a spacious bedroom, ample closet space, and a convenient half bath for guests. Enjoy abundant natural light and a comfortable living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Ideally situated just a short walk to the beach, as well as nearby shops and dining. Great opportunity for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property.

Key facts

• $668 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• SHORT WALK TO THE BEACH
• NEARBY SHOPS AND DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered; Pets allowed with size limit (maximum 20 lbs)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $668; Association covers amenities and common areas; Association pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage space (detached/attached not specified); One-space parking
• Security: Secured garage/parking; Key card entry; Lobby secured
• Utilities: Public water and sewer (standard association-served utilities)
• Home design: Attached property; 5-story building; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Brick and block construction; Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Association pool; Secured garage/parking; Key card entry; Secured lobby

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $352k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-284/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (1.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $352k).
• Recommended offer: $331k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,358/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $99k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($331k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $352k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,880 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $90,650
• Equity at exit: $224,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $245,627
• Equity at exit: $408,707

Cash invested: $98,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 522
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,846
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,556/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$668
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$915
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,388

Max offer price $347,815

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $76	+0% $-24	+5% $-123	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-196	+0% $-24	+5% $148	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $66	base $-24	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,000
• Closing costs: $10,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $668 · $8,016/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $352,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $352,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $352,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $352,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $352,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $352,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $352,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $362,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $362,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    listed $362,000 Active
15. 1999-07-21
    soldstatus $166,500
16. 1999-01-08
    soldstatus $115,000
17. 1997-09-24
    soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,556 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,556 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,717
• − Property taxes: −$4,556
• − Insurance: −$6,878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,184
• − Management: −$4,184
• − HOA: −$8,016
• − Depreciation: −$10,240
• Taxable loss: −$5,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $1,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Surfside

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #4141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surfside, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+265.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $362,000 MARMLS
• 1999-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $166,500 Public Records
• 1999-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,556 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.