479 Cr 065 · Sam Rayburn, TX 75951

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 170 Days on market

Built 2010 Fair condition 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAKE HOUSE FOR SALE. .. .Escape to the peaceful East Texas countryside! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on approximately 2 acres just minutes from the world class fishing and recreation of Sam Rayburn Reservoir Enjoy the privacy of country living while still being conveniently located near Jasper. The home features a welcoming front porch, comfortable living spaces and a functional layout perfect for everyday living or weekend getaways. With plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening or simply enjoying nature, this property offers the space and flexibility buyers are searching for. Whether you're looking for a fulltime home, weekend retreat or investment opportunity near the lake, this property is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Front porch
• Country setting

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PATIO
• COUNTRY SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NEARBY TOWN AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.6% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,739
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $30,830
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $542/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $383	+0% $349	+5% $315	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $295	+0% $349	+5% $403	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $380	base $349	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 151 DOM
17. 2025-12-30
    listed $120,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide home located in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn & Umphrey Family Pavilion. This property features a welcoming front porch, a back patio and a functional layout with comfortable living space throughout. Enjoy peaceful country living with easy access to fishing, boating, outdoor recreation and nearby town amenities. Ideal for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity

18. 2025-12-30
    listed $120,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide home located in a peaceful country setting just minutes from Lake Sam Rayburn & Umphrey Family Pavilion. This property features a welcoming front porch, a back patio and a functional layout with comfortable living space throughout. Enjoy peaceful country living with easy access to fishing, boating, outdoor recreation and nearby town amenities. Ideal for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,654/yr (+$138/mo · 305.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$542
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$562
• After-tax cash flow: $3,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, which would significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Minor front porch steps — slightly worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathrooms would attract more buyers
• Both paint interior walls — improves the home's appearance and can be done inexpensively

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
front porch steps · slightly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathrooms would attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — improves the home's appearance and can be done inexpensively ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $120,000 BBOR
• 2025-12-30 Listed $120,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $542 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.