7809 Barnsley Way · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$525,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2009 3,999 sqft lot $418/sqft · 15% below area Est $614k · 15% under $214/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this stunning residence in the highly desirable Del Webb 55+ active adult community. Showcasing beautiful curb appeal, this home invites you in through an oversized entry door into a light-filled interior with luxury vinyl plank flooring and plantation shutters. A thoughtfully placed guest bedroom near the front of the home offers flexibility for guests or a dedicated workspace. The open great room design creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areasperfect for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. The kitchen shines with granite countertops, a full backsplash, stainless steel appliances, a gas range and updated lighting fixtures. The spacious primary

Key facts

• Oversized entry door
• Plantation shutters
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OVERSIZED ENTRY DOOR
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• GUEST BEDROOM
• OPEN GREAT ROOM DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Quarterly HOA dues; HOA amenities include pool, clubhouse, gym/exercise room, recreation facilities, playground, park, barbecue areas, game court, greenbelt, and rec room with fireplace; HOA fees cover exterior maintenance and other community services

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces and automatic garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water with meter on site; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Cable and internet available
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Built in 2009
• Exterior features: Wood fencing / fully fenced yard; Automatic sprinkler system (front and back); Landscaped front and back; Tile roof; Private built-in pool (community facility access as well)

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry closet; Granite counters; Free standing gas range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (master on the ground floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall(s), double sinks and walk-in closet; Other bath with tub and shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Great room living area; Front porch; Dual-pane windows with coverings; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with cabinets and sink; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (54.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (46.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlene Hein Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #265 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 846 students, 30% FRL); Elizabeth Pinkerton Middle (math 53% / reading 70%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 982 students, 29% FRL); Cosumnes Oaks High (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,212 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,561 (54.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.33%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,163
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -14.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7809 Barnsley Way	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,257 (0%)	0mo	$515,000	$410	100
7417 Chatsworth Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,257 (0%)	2mo	$490,000	$390	90
7540 Abbey	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,257 (0%)	1mo	$495,000	$394	89
7805 Dearne Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,257 (0%)	6mo	$549,000	$437	84
7444 Abbey Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,257 (0%)	10mo	$478,000	$380	78
9932 Westminster Way	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,372 (+9%)	1mo	$537,500	$392	76
7448 Abbey Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,343 (+7%)	3mo	$498,000	$371	72
7430 Chatsworth Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,343 (+7%)	11mo	$539,000	$401	70
9882 Sheffield Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,371 (+9%)	2mo	$525,000	$383	69
7713 Peak Forest Way	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,371 (+9%)	3mo	$535,000	$390	69
9878 Sheffield Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,343 (+7%)	8mo	$549,500	$409	68
9840 Sunderland Way	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,372 (+9%)	12mo	$570,000	$415	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $186,538
• Equity at exit: $472,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $641,015
• Equity at exit: $1,019,960

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$667 /mo · $8,006/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-1,633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,877

Max offer price $236,561

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,336	-5% $-1,484	+0% $-1,633	+5% $-1,781	+10% $-1,930
Rent	-10% $-1,855	-5% $-1,744	+0% $-1,633	+5% $-1,522	+10% $-1,411
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,368	-0.5pp $-1,499	base $-1,633	+0.5pp $-1,769	+1.0pp $-1,907

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9932 Westminster Way Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,695	$1.96	25d	1	0.17mi
7540 Abbey Cir Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1257	$2,700	$2.15	6d	1	0.22mi
7405 Rothschild Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,650	$1.43	4d	1	0.36mi
7216 Tavira Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,600	$1.72	45d	1	0.88mi
7706 Brabham Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,995	$2.09	45d	1	0.93mi
8403 Sinesky Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,995	$1.90	12d	1	0.94mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	9d	1	0.96mi
10371 Bruceville Rd Elk Grove, CA	2.0	3.0	1152	$2,700	$2.34	45d	1	0.98mi
10371 Bruceville Rd Elk Grove, CA	2.0	3.0	1152	$2,700	$2.34	19d	1	0.98mi
8212 Shannon Oak Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,600	$1.92	45d	1	1.04mi
9567 S Coast Ln Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1265	$2,300	$1.82	6d	1	1.07mi
9534 Sunlight Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,650	$1.86	19d	1	1.13mi
10516 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,399	$2.28	6d	1	1.23mi
10514 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,699	$2.67	23d	1	1.23mi
10512 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,699	$2.67	23d	1	1.23mi
10510 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1016	$2,699	$2.66	23d	1	1.23mi
10508 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,389	$2.27	22d	1	1.23mi
10573 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1449	$3,299	$2.28	45d	1	1.24mi
10571 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	12d	1	1.24mi
10565 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	12d	1	1.24mi
10563 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1449	$3,299	$2.28	45d	1	1.24mi
10513 Paseo Garcia Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,699	$2.67	0d	1	1.24mi
10566 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,699	$2.67	6d	1	1.25mi
10564 Vina Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	25d	1	1.25mi
10439 Barrena Loop Elk Grove, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1252	$2,569	$2.05	0d	1	1.26mi
10583 Amigos Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	25d	1	1.26mi
10577 Amigos Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	45d	1	1.26mi
10501 Beso Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,649	$2.62	45d	1	1.28mi
10595 Gato Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,149	$2.38	45d	1	1.29mi
10589 Gato Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1322	$3,119	$2.36	25d	1	1.29mi
10454 Barrena Loop Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,599	$2.57	45d	1	1.30mi
10590 Gato Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,659	$2.63	6d	1	1.30mi
10588 Gato Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,699	$2.67	25d	1	1.30mi
10456 Barrena Loop Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,549	$2.52	19d	1	1.30mi
10488 Viva Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,549	$2.52	25d	1	1.31mi
10485 Viva Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,549	$2.52	45d	1	1.31mi
10490 Viva Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,549	$2.52	45d	1	1.31mi
10460 Barrena Loop Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,549	$2.52	6d	1	1.31mi
8357 Eleodoro Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1730	$3,245	$1.88	4d	1	1.32mi
10470 Barrena Loop Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1012	$2,569	$2.54	0d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $214 · $2,568/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2019-10-18
   soldstatus $407,000
2. 2016-07-22
   soldstatus $325,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,006 · $667/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,006 · $667/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$8,006
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,698
• − Management: −$2,698
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$29,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,092
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+58.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $407,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,006 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.