512 171st St E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34212

$374,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · Land · 131 Days on market

Built 2026 6,600 sqft lot $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Beautiful new construction home ready for you to put your personal touch on. Selections include, cabinets color, exterior color scheme, flooring and lighting finishes. The Palm single-family home is purely amazing. Four spacious bedrooms and a full bath offer all the space you need for family and friends to enjoy quiet comfort. Get everyone together in your great room for game night. Or gather around your dining table and center island for a mouthwatering homemade meal, fresh from your gourmet kitchen. Enjoy some fresh air outside on your lovely lanai. Then call it a night and step into your luxurious owner’s suite. In here, a large walk-in closet and do

Key facts

• Swimmable lake
• Gourmet kitchen
• Nature trails

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• FENCED OFF-LEASH DOG PARK
• SWIMMABLE LAKE
• NATURE TRAILS
• PICNIC AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment included; Green features: HVAC filter MERV 8+, no/low VOC flooring and paint/finish, ventilation, energy-efficient appliances/HVAC/lighting/windows, low-flow fixtures
• Financial info: Home warranty included; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA with Ryan Homes (monthly fee $95); Community amenities include park and playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Pre-construction (projected completion: 2026-11-30); Home faces west; PD-R zoning
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Ryan Homes (Builder model: PALM)
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalks and paved lot; Trees and landscaped yard; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Drip irrigation and reclaimed-water irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Carlos E. Haile Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 737 students, 45% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,382 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.82% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-70,561
• Equity at exit: $75,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-103,766
• Equity at exit: $67,967

Cash invested: $104,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34212

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,401

Max offer price $329,633

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-184	+0% $-313	+5% $-443	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-432	+0% $-313	+5% $-195	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-218	base $-313	+0.5pp $-411	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,748
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16037 7th Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	0.72mi
611 160th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2036	$2,600	$1.28	25d	1	0.80mi
604 160th St E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.83mi
15769 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	16d	1	1.10mi
626 157th Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,499	$1.60	18d	1	1.12mi
405 Gris Sky Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,399	$1.45	16d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $374,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,990 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,990 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,990 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,990 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,990 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,990 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,990 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,990 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,990 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-02-05
    listed $374,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,005
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,884
• − Management: −$2,884
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,275
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,466
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,536
• Household income: $125,486
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.82%
• Current HPI: 276.7636
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.44%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $374,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.