86 Orange Ave · Walden, NY 12586

$249,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1920 7,332 sqft lot $154/sqft · 36% below area Est $392k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 86 Orange Ave – a charming home in the heart of Walden offering the perfect blend of small-town Hudson Valley living and modern convenience. Nestled in the Valley Central School District, this property sits just moments from Walden’s vibrant Main Street, local parks, and the scenic Wallkill River. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open layout with plenty of natural light, comfortable living spaces, and room to entertain. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms offer privacy and comfort, while the backyard oasis is perfect for summer barbecues, gardening, or simply relaxing. Highlights include: Prime Village Location – walkable to shops, cafés, and community events Commuter-Friendly – just minutes to I-84, NYS Thruway, and Beacon’s Metro-North station Lifestyle Living – hiking trails, Angry Orchard, and Hudson Valley wineries all nearby Whether you’re a first-time buyer, a family looking to settle in, or a commuter seeking a peaceful retreat, 86 Orange Ave delivers affordability, comfort, and location in one package.

Key facts

• 7,332 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.6% in Walden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#587 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $250k implies a 920% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,232 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,717
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -36.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Walnut St	0.27mi	4/1.5	1,711 (+5%)	8mo	$425,000	$248	69
59 East Main St	0.33mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (+3%)	8mo	$303,000	$180	65
81 Ulster Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (+4%)	1mo	$400,000	$236	59
13 Hidden View Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (+4%)	10mo	$459,000	$272	54
110 Coldenham Rd	0.42mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,527 (-6%)	10mo	$360,000	$236	53
31 Donna Chrystie Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-0%)	8mo	$410,000	$253	53
33 Bank St	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (-14%)	2mo	$305,000	$218	49
80 Hill St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,755 (+8%)	10mo	$425,000	$242	47
9 Yale Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,494 (-8%)	2mo	$435,000	$291	46
66 Orchard St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-14%)	10mo	$330,000	$236	46
73 East Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,430 (-12%)	8mo	$340,000	$238	37
26 Mckinley Ave	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,824 (+12%)	13mo	$400,000	$219	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,914
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,116
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12586

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,215/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $226,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-63	+0% $-134	+5% $-204	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-219	+0% $-134	+5% $-48	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-70	base $-134	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Maple St Walden, NY	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,300	$2.00	16d	1	0.18mi
59 Ulster Ave Walden, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	16d	1	0.43mi
63 Capron St Walden, NY	3.0	1.5	1388	$2,350	$1.69	46d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $249,999 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,999 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,999 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,999 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,999 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,999 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,999 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-10
    price $249,999 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Welcome to 86 Orange Ave – a charming home in the heart of Walden offering the perfect blend of small-town Hudson Valley living and modern convenience. Nestled in the Valley Central School District, this property sits just moments from Walden’s vibrant Main Street, local parks, and the scenic Wallkill River. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open layout with plenty of natural light, comfortable living spaces, and room to entertain. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms offer privacy and comfort, while the backyard oasis is perfect for summer barbecues, gardening, or simply relaxing. Highlights include: Prime Village Location – walkable to shops, cafés, and community events Commuter-Friendly – just minutes to I-84, NYS Thruway, and Beacon’s Metro-North station Lifestyle Living – hiking trails, Angry Orchard, and Hudson Valley wineries all nearby Whether you’re a first-time buyer, a family looking to settle in, or a commuter seeking a peaceful retreat, 86 Orange Ave delivers affordability, comfort, and location in one package.

19. 2026-04-15
    status Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Welcome to 86 Orange Ave – a charming home in the heart of Walden offering the perfect blend of small-town Hudson Valley living and modern convenience. Nestled in the Valley Central School District, this property sits just moments from Walden’s vibrant Main Street, local parks, and the scenic Wallkill River. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open layout with plenty of natural light, comfortable living spaces, and room to entertain. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms offer privacy and comfort, while the backyard oasis is perfect for summer barbecues, gardening, or simply relaxing. Highlights include: Prime Village Location – walkable to shops, cafés, and community events Commuter-Friendly – just minutes to I-84, NYS Thruway, and Beacon’s Metro-North station Lifestyle Living – hiking trails, Angry Orchard, and Hudson Valley wineries all nearby Whether you’re a first-time buyer, a family looking to settle in, or a commuter seeking a peaceful retreat, 86 Orange Ave delivers affordability, comfort, and location in one package.

20. 2025-10-10
    listed $279,999 Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Welcome to 86 Orange Ave – a charming home in the heart of Walden offering the perfect blend of small-town Hudson Valley living and modern convenience. Nestled in the Valley Central School District, this property sits just moments from Walden’s vibrant Main Street, local parks, and the scenic Wallkill River. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open layout with plenty of natural light, comfortable living spaces, and room to entertain. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms offer privacy and comfort, while the backyard oasis is perfect for summer barbecues, gardening, or simply relaxing. Highlights include: Prime Village Location – walkable to shops, cafés, and community events Commuter-Friendly – just minutes to I-84, NYS Thruway, and Beacon’s Metro-North station Lifestyle Living – hiking trails, Angry Orchard, and Hudson Valley wineries all nearby Whether you’re a first-time buyer, a family looking to settle in, or a commuter seeking a peaceful retreat, 86 Orange Ave delivers affordability, comfort, and location in one package.

21. 2025-09-28
    historical $279,999 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    Welcome to 86 Orange Ave – a charming home in the heart of Walden offering the perfect blend of small-town Hudson Valley living and modern convenience. Nestled in the Valley Central School District, this property sits just moments from Walden’s vibrant Main Street, local parks, and the scenic Wallkill River. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open layout with plenty of natural light, comfortable living spaces, and room to entertain. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining area, making it ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, spacious bedrooms offer privacy and comfort, while the backyard oasis is perfect for summer barbecues, gardening, or simply relaxing. Highlights include: Prime Village Location – walkable to shops, cafés, and community events Commuter-Friendly – just minutes to I-84, NYS Thruway, and Beacon’s Metro-North station Lifestyle Living – hiking trails, Angry Orchard, and Hudson Valley wineries all nearby Whether you’re a first-time buyer, a family looking to settle in, or a commuter seeking a peaceful retreat, 86 Orange Ave delivers affordability, comfort, and location in one package.

22. 1975-09-01
    soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,215
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $-201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walden

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #587
• US rank: #10610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walden, NY
• City population: 12,874
• Population (ZIP): 12,874

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.44%
• Current HPI: 315.1034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+920.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $249,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listed $279,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-28 Coming Soon $279,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1975-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,215 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.