429 Jerusalem Rd · South Windham, CT 06280

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1962 1.01 ac lot Est $250k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD HOME FHA Case # 061-394649 3 bedrooms, kitchen with plenty of cabinets and counter top space open living room area with hardwood floors and fireplace, 2 car garage, large level back yard. Please make an appointment to view this home with a Real Estate Agent or Broker of your choice. Type of financing available, cash, conventional loan, FHA 203K. LBP addendum required

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#138 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Windham School District (town): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #143 of 153 in CT (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Charles H. Barrows Stem Academy (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #298 of 553 statewide, top 56%, 553 students, 51% FRL); Windham Middle School (math 8% / reading 18%, grade F, #167 of 175 statewide, top 96%, 574 students, 78% FRL); Windham High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #170 of 194 statewide, top 88%, 662 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,491 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 Jerusalem Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$260	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $87,717
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $266,228
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06280

• Home prices YoY: 17.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,869/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $151,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-104	+0% $-155	+5% $-205	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-214	+0% $-155	+5% $-96	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-109	base $-155	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $179,000 Active
3. 2026-04-18
   historical $179,000
4. 2019-05-15
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   HUD HOME FHA Case # 061-394649 3 bedrooms, kitchen with plenty of cabinets and counter top space open living room area with hardwood floors and fireplace, 2 car garage, large level back yard. Please make an appointment to view this home with a Real Estate Agent or Broker of your choice. Type of financing available, cash, conventional loan, FHA 203K. LBP addendum required

5. 2019-04-09
   historical 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   HUD HOME FHA Case # 061-394649 3 bedrooms, kitchen with plenty of cabinets and counter top space open living room area with hardwood floors and fireplace, 2 car garage, large level back yard. Please make an appointment to view this home with a Real Estate Agent or Broker of your choice. Type of financing available, cash, conventional loan, FHA 203K. LBP addendum required

6. 2019-03-30
   listed $125,000 Active 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   HUD HOME FHA Case # 061-394649 3 bedrooms, kitchen with plenty of cabinets and counter top space open living room area with hardwood floors and fireplace, 2 car garage, large level back yard. Please make an appointment to view this home with a Real Estate Agent or Broker of your choice. Type of financing available, cash, conventional loan, FHA 203K. LBP addendum required

7. 2018-10-24
   soldstatus $113,100
8. 2013-02-16
   historical
9. 2012-08-17
   listed $189,500
10. 2005-03-10
    soldstatus $170,000
11. 2001-09-28
    soldstatus $129,000
12. 2001-09-27
    soldstatus $129,000
13. 2001-07-22
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,869 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,869 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$3,869
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,183
• After-tax cash flow: $-674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windham School District
• NCES district ID: 0905190
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,956
• Composite: 17.01/100
• National rank: #9128
• State rank: #143 of 153 in CT

Livability — South Windham

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #18742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 278
• Population (ZIP): 3,179

Population outlook (Southeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 293,442

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 2% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+13.0) · D 55.6% · R 42.6% · Other 1.8%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.35%
• Current HPI: 285.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $179,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $179,000 Smart MLS
• 2019-05-15 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Smart MLS
• 2019-04-09 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2019-03-30 Listed $125,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $113,100 Public Records
• 2013-02-16 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2012-08-17 Listed $189,500 Smart MLS
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-27 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Smart MLS
• 2001-07-22 Listed $129,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,869 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.