29 Arbor Club Dr #212 · Palm Valley, FL 32082

$219,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Condo public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1992 $206/sqft · 10% below area Est $243k · 10% under $503/mo HOA · 21% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great quiet location, St. Johns County schools, walk or ride bicycles to the beach, beach access gate for Ocean Grove residents, close to shops, elementary school in walking distance. Fireplace, carpet 2-year new, refrigerator and dish washer a couple years old, water fountain view, screened patio, community pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Beach access gate
• Community pool

Tags

• ST JOHNS COUNTY SCHOOLS
• BEACH ACCESS GATE
• WALK TO THE BEACH
• WATER FOUNTAIN VIEW
• SCREENED PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (9.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,989 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,455
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -9.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-31,985
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,570
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,787/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$503
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,506

Max offer price $198,989

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-56	+0% $-118	+5% $-181	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-211	+0% $-118	+5% $-25	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-62	base $-118	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Arbor Club Dr #103 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	8d	1	0.07mi
19 Arbor Club Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,095	$1.88	24d	1	0.08mi
11 Arbor Club Dr #214 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,200	$1.97	24d	1	0.09mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	15d	3	0.16mi
908 Shoreline Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$2,100	$2.03	4d	1	0.18mi
71 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$3,200	$3.37	24d	1	0.39mi
46 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	22d	1	0.39mi
650 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit E Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$3,995	$2.84	24d	1	0.67mi
622 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit D4 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$4,500	$3.12	24d	1	0.69mi
657 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit 657C Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$6,500	$5.30	24d	1	0.73mi
562 Ponte Vedra Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1453	$4,500	$3.10	24d	1	0.84mi
130 Veracruz Dr #722 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$2,000	$2.02	24d	1	0.87mi
230 Colima Ct Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$2,148	$2.17	8d	1	0.87mi
160 Veracruz Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,188	$2.05	24d	1	0.96mi
43 Tifton Way N Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$3,950	$2.79	24d	1	1.11mi
100 Ironwood Dr #133 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,295	$2.05	24d	1	1.18mi
743 Spinnakers Reach Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$4,500	$6.43	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $503 · $6,036/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• ⚠ Special-assessment mentions:

  …pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    listed $219,900 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Great quiet location, St. Johns County schools, walk or ride bicycles to the beach, beach access gate for Ocean Grove residents, close to shops, elementary school in walking distance. Fireplace, carpet 2-year new, refrigerator and dish washer a couple years old, water fountain view, screened patio, community pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

15. 2024-11-20
    historical 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great quiet location, St. Johns County schools, walk or ride bicycles to the beach, close to shops, elementary school in walking distance. Fireplace, carpet 2-year new, refrigerator and dish washer a couple years old, water fountain view, screened patio, community pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Ready for move in. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. TEMPORARY REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE! Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

16. 2024-10-22
    price $239,900 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great quiet location, St. Johns County schools, walk or ride bicycles to the beach, close to shops, elementary school in walking distance. Fireplace, carpet 2-year new, refrigerator and dish washer a couple years old, water fountain view, screened patio, community pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Ready for move in. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. TEMPORARY REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE! Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

17. 2024-08-09
    price $249,900 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great quiet location, St. Johns County schools, walk or ride bicycles to the beach, close to shops, elementary school in walking distance. Fireplace, carpet 2-year new, refrigerator and dish washer a couple years old, water fountain view, screened patio, community pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Ready for move in. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. TEMPORARY REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE! Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

18. 2024-05-24
    listed $265,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Great quiet location, St. Johns County schools, walk or ride bicycles to the beach, close to shops, elementary school in walking distance. Fireplace, carpet 2-year new, refrigerator and dish washer a couple years old, water fountain view, screened patio, community pool, tennis courts, many amenities. Building well maintained. Washer & dryer ''AS IS''. Ready for move in. Beach access. Seller pays special assessment. TEMPORARY REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE! Best price for Ponte Vedra Bch & St. John's County lifestyle.

19. 2023-05-24
    historical
20. 2023-03-11
    price $284,900
21. 2023-02-14
    price $298,900
22. 2023-01-17
    listed $314,900 Active
23. 2005-07-07
    soldstatus $199,900
24. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $199,900
25. 2005-04-26
    listed $199,900
26. 2005-01-21
    soldstatus $166,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,787 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,787 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,787
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$6,036
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+31.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $219,900 realMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $239,900 realMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $249,900 realMLS
• 2024-05-24 Listed $265,000 realMLS
• 2023-05-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-03-11 Price Changed $284,900 realMLS
• 2023-02-14 Price Changed $298,900 realMLS
• 2023-01-17 Listed $314,900 realMLS
• 2005-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2005-06-24 Sold (MLS) $199,900 realMLS
• 2005-04-26 Listed $199,900 realMLS
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $166,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,787 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.