36529 Pebble Dr · Long Neck, DE 19966

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1983 $216/sqft · 358% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wake up every day to sweeping bay and wetland views from this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home — a rare opportunity to enjoy true waterfront living with your boat docked right in your own backyard. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home features a spacious layout enhanced by numerous upgrades throughout. Newly installed ductless heating and cooling units provide efficient, year-round climate control in every room, ensuring personalized comfort no matter the season. Step outside to take in the coastal breeze from the large deck overlooking the water, or host gatherings on the stamped concrete patio — the perfect setting for sunset dinners and weekend barbecues. Whether you’re relaxing with your morning coffee or unwinding after a day on the water, the outdoor living space truly shines. A standout feature rarely found in this community is the detached garage, offering valuable storage and parking flexibility. The home also boasts a large blacktop driveway, providing ample additional parking. With panoramic water views, modern upgrades, exceptional outdoor space, and the ultimate convenience of backyard boat access, this property delivers a lifestyle many dream of but few get to own.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Waterfront living
• Boat docked

Tags

• BAY AND WETLAND VIEWS
• WATERFRONT LIVING
• BOAT DOCKED
• DUCTLESS HEATING AND COOLING
• LARGE DECK
• STAMPED CONCRETE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Neck Elementary School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #57 of 105 statewide, top 55%, 693 students, 0% FRL); Millsboro Middle School (math 24% / reading 42%, grade F, #14 of 36 statewide, top 37%, 771 students, 0% FRL); Sussex Central High School (math 23% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 40 statewide, top 59%, 2,039 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 870 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,149 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.39%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,350
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 118.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,449
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,562
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19966

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 870
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $183,149

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-47	+0% $-116	+5% $-185	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-202	+0% $-116	+5% $-29	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-65	base $-116	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Wake up every day to sweeping bay and wetland views from this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home — a rare opportunity to enjoy true waterfront living with your boat docked right in your own backyard. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home features a spacious layout enhanced by numerous upgrades throughout. Newly installed ductless heating and cooling units provide efficient, year-round climate control in every room, ensuring personalized comfort no matter the season. Step outside to take in the coastal breeze from the large deck overlooking the water, or host gatherings on the stamped concrete patio — the perfect setting for sunset dinners and weekend barbecues. Whether you’re relaxing with your morning coffee or unwinding after a day on the water, the outdoor living space truly shines. A standout feature rarely found in this community is the detached garage, offering valuable storage and parking flexibility. The home also boasts a large blacktop driveway, providing ample additional parking. With panoramic water views, modern upgrades, exceptional outdoor space, and the ultimate convenience of backyard boat access, this property delivers a lifestyle many dream of but few get to own.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $199,900 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Wake up every day to sweeping bay and wetland views from this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home — a rare opportunity to enjoy true waterfront living with your boat docked right in your own backyard. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home features a spacious layout enhanced by numerous upgrades throughout. Newly installed ductless heating and cooling units provide efficient, year-round climate control in every room, ensuring personalized comfort no matter the season. Step outside to take in the coastal breeze from the large deck overlooking the water, or host gatherings on the stamped concrete patio — the perfect setting for sunset dinners and weekend barbecues. Whether you’re relaxing with your morning coffee or unwinding after a day on the water, the outdoor living space truly shines. A standout feature rarely found in this community is the detached garage, offering valuable storage and parking flexibility. The home also boasts a large blacktop driveway, providing ample additional parking. With panoramic water views, modern upgrades, exceptional outdoor space, and the ultimate convenience of backyard boat access, this property delivers a lifestyle many dream of but few get to own.

3. 2026-02-25
   listed $215,000 Active 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   Wake up every day to sweeping bay and wetland views from this beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home — a rare opportunity to enjoy true waterfront living with your boat docked right in your own backyard. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this home features a spacious layout enhanced by numerous upgrades throughout. Newly installed ductless heating and cooling units provide efficient, year-round climate control in every room, ensuring personalized comfort no matter the season. Step outside to take in the coastal breeze from the large deck overlooking the water, or host gatherings on the stamped concrete patio — the perfect setting for sunset dinners and weekend barbecues. Whether you’re relaxing with your morning coffee or unwinding after a day on the water, the outdoor living space truly shines. A standout feature rarely found in this community is the detached garage, offering valuable storage and parking flexibility. The home also boasts a large blacktop driveway, providing ample additional parking. With panoramic water views, modern upgrades, exceptional outdoor space, and the ultimate convenience of backyard boat access, this property delivers a lifestyle many dream of but few get to own.

4. 2011-01-05
   historical
5. 2009-08-05
   listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$6,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $-306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Long Neck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 35,884
• Household income: $78,305
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
• Current HPI: 268.5609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+122.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-01-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-05 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · -26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.