5271 Shady Dr · Millbrook, AL 36054

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1953 1.74 ac lot $94/sqft · 21% below area Est $201k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS OR STEP ONTO THIS PROPERTY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT. TONS OF POTENTIAL! Spacious 3 bedroom/1.5 bath home on a large 1.74 acre lot right in the middle of Millbrook! Living Room and Large Den/Family Room and Separate Dining Room. Breakfast Bar in Kitchen. Mature trees. 2 Car Metal Carport. Storage/ Workshop out Back. Great price and great location!

Key facts

• Living room
• Large lot
• Dining room

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• LIVING ROOM
• DEN
• DINING ROOM
• BREAKFAST BAR
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coosada Elementary School (930 students, 70% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #61 of 257 statewide, top 24%, 1,185 students, 75% FRL); Stanhope Elmore High School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #87 of 305 statewide, top 29%, 1,181 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 44% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $160k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,444
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -20.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5270 Mona Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,708 (+0%)	11mo	$190,000	$111	66
193 Homewood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-8%)	4mo	$249,900	$159	66
5761 Main St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,551 (-9%)	1mo	$193,000	$124	65
5180 Grace St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,536 (-10%)	12mo	$188,900	$123	53
30 Payton Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+3%)	1mo	$275,900	$156	52
212 Homewood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,946 (+14%)	11mo	$290,000	$149	49
4030 Willowbrook Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (+8%)	12mo	$265,000	$144	48
125 Cattail Curv	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,557 (-9%)	12mo	$210,000	$135	46
99 Cattail Curv	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-12%)	4mo	$201,000	$135	45
4211 Willowbrook Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,905 (+12%)	7mo	$259,900	$136	42
4181 Willowbrook Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,907 (+12%)	13mo	$290,000	$152	39
105 Pecan Cir	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (-13%)	9mo	$234,900	$158	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,106
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $80,731
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $436	+0% $391	+5% $346	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $322	+0% $391	+5% $460	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $432	base $391	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5421 Shady Dr Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,800	$1.00	45d	1	0.15mi
33 Jamestown Loop Millbrook, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,375	$1.10	15d	1	0.38mi
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	15d	1	0.68mi
30 Payton Ct Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,000	$1.13	15d	1	0.71mi
223 S Springfield Dr Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	0.89mi
101 Crossings Dr Millbrook, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,670	$1.54	15d	7	1.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-01-29
    listed $160,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    DO NOT DISTURB TENANTS OR STEP ONTO THIS PROPERTY WITHOUT AN APPOINTMENT. TONS OF POTENTIAL! Spacious 3 bedroom/1.5 bath home on a large 1.74 acre lot right in the middle of Millbrook! Living Room and Large Den/Family Room and Separate Dining Room. Breakfast Bar in Kitchen. Mature trees. 2 Car Metal Carport. Storage/ Workshop out Back. Great price and great location!

18. 2013-07-29
    soldstatus $75,000 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    TONS OF POTENTIAL! ONE OWNER, 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bath Home. Living Room and Large Den/Family Room and Separate Dining Room. Breakfast Bar in Kitchen. HUGE Lot!!!! Mature Producing Pecan Trees. 2 Car Metal Carport. Brand New HVAC system. Storage/ Workshop out Back. Riding lawn mower included in accepted contract.

19. 2013-06-01
    listed $89,900 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    TONS OF POTENTIAL! ONE OWNER, 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bath Home. Living Room and Large Den/Family Room and Separate Dining Room. Breakfast Bar in Kitchen. HUGE Lot!!!! Mature Producing Pecan Trees. 2 Car Metal Carport. Brand New HVAC system. Storage/ Workshop out Back. Riding lawn mower included in accepted contract.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $4,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $160,000 MAAR
• 2013-07-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MAAR
• 2013-06-01 Listed $89,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $922 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.