5429 Java Ave · McDonald Chapel, AL 35224

$56,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1953 1.08 ac lot Est $77k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for that RIGHT Investor/Buyer to USE their skills and imagination to transform this house. Is this the ONE for YOU? Come check it out before it's GONE!

Key facts

• 1.08 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#365 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Minor Community School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 409 students, 84% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $56k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.29%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,436
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1020 Salem St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+9%)	11mo	$85,000	$81	67
420 Quebec St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+13%)	15mo	$55,000	$51	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $24,464
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $64,510
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35224

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $657/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $471

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $542	+0% $526	+5% $511	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $482	+0% $526	+5% $571	+10% $616
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $541	base $526	+0.5pp $512	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Yukon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,125	$1.08	44d	1	0.52mi
4800 Norway Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	3d	1	0.67mi
229 Oregon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	15d	1	0.87mi
229 Oregon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	17d	1	0.87mi
604 Lexington St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	993	$1,200	$1.21	44d	1	1.21mi
761 Crowne Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,200	$1.12	3d	1	1.23mi
3121 Monroe Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	951	$995	$1.05	17d	1	1.39mi
538 Gulfport St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1036	$850	$0.82	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-25
   listed $56,000 Active
3. 1994-01-21
   soldstatus $25,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$657
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,092
• − Management: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $5,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $4,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — McDonald Chapel

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #21203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McDonald Chapel, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 5,409

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% White 22% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.47%
• Current HPI: 126.3423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+116.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $56,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1994-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $657 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.