302 Kernohan St · Crosby, TX 77532

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1960 0.48 ac lot $142/sqft · 17% below area Est $240k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A single-family home in the Crosby Townsite subdivision featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 full and 1 half bathroom, and about 1,400 sq ft of living space on a ~0.48-acre lot. Built in 1960, the property offers a spacious layout and is located near local schools and amenities in Crosby.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,019
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -17.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Magnetic Hill Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (-0%)	5mo	$299,888	$215	78
707 Amberwood Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+6%)	2mo	$268,990	$181	75
17314 Roxboro Ridge Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+6%)	3mo	$270,990	$183	75
17315 Glacier Forest Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+6%)	3mo	$268,990	$181	74
2614 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+1%)	6mo	$212,740	$150	74
17311 Thor Well Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+7%)	3mo	$239,900	$160	73
18811 Spokane Falls Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+6%)	6mo	$254,340	$172	73
17310 Roxboro Ridge Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-9%)	2mo	$263,990	$208	70
6318 Borage St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+4%)	1mo	$249,999	$172	61
6323 Feverfew Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-1%)	6mo	$245,000	$176	61
2618 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+11%)	6mo	$249,690	$160	58
2547 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+12%)	5mo	$249,840	$160	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,079
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,670
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,705/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
711 Equinox St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,881	$1.04	44d	1	1.10mi
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,863	$1.36	5d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $199,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    A single-family home in the Crosby Townsite subdivision featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 full and 1 half bathroom, and about 1,400 sq ft of living space on a ~0.48-acre lot. Built in 1960, the property offers a spacious layout and is located near local schools and amenities in Crosby.

15. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus
16. 2016-10-10
    historical
17. 2016-08-11
    listed $105,000 Active
18. 2016-06-08
    historical
19. 2016-03-07
    listed $105,000 Active
20. 2015-10-21
    soldstatus
21. 2015-10-20
    soldstatus
22. 2006-08-02
    soldstatus
23. 2005-02-15
    soldstatus
24. 2005-02-07
    historical
25. 2004-08-03
    listed $39,900
26. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,705 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,705 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,705
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$141
• After-tax cash flow: $2,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crosby, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+398.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-08-11 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2016-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-03-07 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2015-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-08-03 Listed $39,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,705 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.