Is Brayton Plan in San Antonio, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-381/mo modeled cash flow at a $151,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Brayton Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,570/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.29

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.6/30.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
Rent growth +1.7/5.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$151,999

Brayton Plan · San Antonio, TX 78245

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 771 sqft · SingleFamily · 532 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Open floorplan
En-suite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1557 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 532 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $133,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 532 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.35%
Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $234,602
List price: $151,999
Delta: -35.21%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3722 Millbrook Way	0.49mi	2/2.0	764 (-1%)	30mo	$167,999	$220	56
6727 Legato Curv	1.98mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	48mo	$227,900	$241	20
6447 Legato Curv	2.01mi	2/2.0	956 (+24%)	48mo	$227,000	$237	20
6610 Legato Curv	2.07mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	48mo	$227,900	$241	20
6627 Legato Curv	2.03mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	48mo	$227,900	$241	20
6431 Legato Curv	2.00mi	2/2.0	956 (+24%)	48mo	$230,000	$241	20
13443 Whisper Xing	1.87mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	50mo	$230,000	$243	20
6511 Dynamic Sound	1.98mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	57mo	$234,500	$248	20
6435 Schumann Path	1.88mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	60mo	$212,500	$225	20
6429 Handel Ldg	1.89mi	2/2.0	945 (+23%)	60mo	$212,500	$225	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.7%
Equity multiple: -0.02×
Total profit: $-66,840
Equity at exit: $34,980

10-year hold

IRR: -56.9%
Equity multiple: -0.63×
Total profit: $-107,112
Equity at exit: $20,284

Cash invested: $65,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

Home prices YoY: -18.5%
Rents YoY: -3.0%
Active inventory: 1557
Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,570 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,230
Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,519/yr
Insurance: −$98
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,052

Max offer price $179,518

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-219	-5% $-300	+0% $-381	+5% $-462	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-443	+0% $-381	+5% $-319	+10% $-257
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-321	base $-381	+0.5pp $-441	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $58,651
Closing costs: $7,038
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3704 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1013	$1,800	$1.78	139d	1	0.52mi
3704 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1013	$1,800	$1.78	23d	1	0.52mi
14360 W Grosenbacher Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,416	$1.46	0d	21	0.62mi
5525 Mansions Blfs San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,317	$1.52	0d	42	1.36mi

Listing history 45 events

2026-07-24

days on market $151,999 Active 532 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $151,999 Active 531 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $151,999 Active 530 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $151,999 Active 529 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $151,999 Active 528 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $151,999 Active 526 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $151,999 Active 525 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $151,999 Active 524 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $151,999 Active 523 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $151,999 Active 522 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $151,999 Active 521 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $151,999 Active 520 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $151,999 Active 519 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $151,999 Active 518 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $151,999 Active 517 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $151,999 Active 515 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $151,999 Active 514 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $151,999 Active 513 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $151,999 Active 511 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $151,999 Active 510 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $151,999 Active 509 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $151,999 Active 508 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $151,999 Active 507 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $151,999 Active 506 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $151,999 Active 505 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $151,999 Active 504 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $151,999 Active 502 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $151,999 Active 500 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $151,999 Active 499 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $151,999 Active 496 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $151,999 Active 495 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $151,999 Active 494 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $151,999 Active 493 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $151,999 Active 491 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $151,999 Active 487 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $151,999 Active 486 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $151,999 Active 485 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $151,999 Active 482 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $151,999 Active 481 DOM
2026-06-02

pricedays on market $151,999 Active 480 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $152,999 Active 479 DOM
2026-05-31

pricedays on market $152,999 Active 478 DOM
2025-08-24

price $155,999 440-char remark

Show marketing remark (440 chars)

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.
2025-07-17

price $169,999 440-char remark

Show marketing remark (440 chars)

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.
2025-02-08

listed $179,999 Active 440-char remark

Show marketing remark (440 chars)

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $18,845
− Mortgage interest: −$13,141
− Property taxes: −$3,519
− Insurance: −$1,173
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
− Management: −$1,508
− Depreciation: −$6,825
Taxable loss: −$8,829

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,119
After-tax cash flow: $-2,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Medina Valley ISD
NCES district ID: 4830060
Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $60,596
Composite: 44.2/100
National rank: #2851
State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — San Antonio

Score: 80/100
State rank: #31
US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
City population: 1,806,925
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 96,015
Household income: $90,029
Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
Current HPI: 234.7931
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2025-08-24 Price Changed $155,999 Zillow
2025-07-17 Price Changed $169,999 Zillow
2025-02-08 Listed $179,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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