2806 Avenue J · Fort Madison, IA 52627

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1898 3,250 sqft lot $80/sqft · 15% below area Est $77k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this charming, ready to move in, 2 bedroom home. This cute bungalow style home has a quiet setting and convenient location. One step gives you access to the covered front porch that is perfect for sitting outside and enjoying the weather. The exterior boasts vinyl siding and great curb appeal. The nice sized living room, spacious kitchen, bedrooms and bath are all accessible on one level. Currently rented with landlord only paying taxes and insurance. Priced right.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Great curb appeal
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• VINYL SIDING
• GREAT CURB APPEAL
• ONE LEVEL ACCESSIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($715 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.3% in Fort Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#230 in IA, #4,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Fort Madison Community School District (town): math 55% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #260 of 289 in IA (top 90%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $65k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,512
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -15.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
913 29th St	0.10mi	2/1.0	768 (-5%)	13mo	$70,500	$92	77
2511 Avenue G	0.33mi	2/1.0	834 (+3%)	7mo	$78,500	$94	73
3024 Avenue I	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	828 (+2%)	10mo	$75,000	$91	72
3011 Ave I	0.22mi	2/1.0	868 (+7%)	8mo	$80,000	$92	71
2706 Avenue N	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	843 (+4%)	8mo	$11,700	$14	66
2815 Avenue N	0.23mi	2/1.0	898 (+11%)	8mo	$65,000	$72	64
622 Crescent Ln	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	12mo	$95,000	$110	62
1230 33rd St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (+9%)	4mo	$25,000	$28	56
2133 Avenue E	0.64mi	2/1.5	786 (-3%)	10mo	$67,500	$86	56
2134 Avenue G	0.55mi	2/1.0	748 (-7%)	12mo	$79,500	$106	52
1222 33rd St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (+1)	884 (+9%)	12mo	$85,000	$96	43
605 20th St	0.72mi	2/2.0	918 (+14%)	12mo	$85,000	$93	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,301
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $10,735
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52627

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$150
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3421 Avenue N Fort Madison, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0	572	$715	$1.25	44d	5	0.56mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-02-02
    listed $65,000 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Don't miss out on this charming, ready to move in, 2 bedroom home. This cute bungalow style home has a quiet setting and convenient location. One step gives you access to the covered front porch that is perfect for sitting outside and enjoying the weather. The exterior boasts vinyl siding and great curb appeal. The nice sized living room, spacious kitchen, bedrooms and bath are all accessible on one level. Currently rented with landlord only paying taxes and insurance. Priced right.

18. 2024-07-31
    soldstatus $40,500
19. 2024-07-29
    soldstatus $40,500 Closed 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Economical living just for you. Roof, siding, windows, gas air forced furnace all new within the last 10 years. With a little TLC you can make this 2 bedroom house yours. Nice size fenced in backyard. Older garage behind home with alley access.

20. 2024-06-29
    status Pending 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Economical living just for you. Roof, siding, windows, gas air forced furnace all new within the last 10 years. With a little TLC you can make this 2 bedroom house yours. Nice size fenced in backyard. Older garage behind home with alley access.

21. 2024-06-03
    historical Active Under Contract 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Economical living just for you. Roof, siding, windows, gas air forced furnace all new within the last 10 years. With a little TLC you can make this 2 bedroom house yours. Nice size fenced in backyard. Older garage behind home with alley access.

22. 2024-05-10
    listed $53,000 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Economical living just for you. Roof, siding, windows, gas air forced furnace all new within the last 10 years. With a little TLC you can make this 2 bedroom house yours. Nice size fenced in backyard. Older garage behind home with alley access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$686
• − Management: −$686
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$175
• After-tax cash flow: $1,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Madison Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1911850
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,801
• Composite: 47.87/100
• National rank: #2218
• State rank: #260 of 289 in IA

Livability — Fort Madison

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #4353

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Madison, IA
• Population (ZIP): 12,585

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,813 people
• By 2030: 32,835 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 30,690 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 28,777 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,568 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 21,983 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.0% · R 62.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+16.1 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.32%
• Current HPI: 175.7708
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+22.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $65,000 IAR
• 2024-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records
• 2024-07-29 Sold (MLS) $40,500 IAR
• 2024-06-29 Pending — IAR
• 2024-06-03 Contingent — IAR
• 2024-05-10 Listed $53,000 IAR

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.