12601 Wayne Spur Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$237,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2009 6,629 sqft lot Est $230k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This dream home has been extremely well cared for. In addition to 3 bedrooms, it has a private office, beautiful hardwood floors and 6" baseboards in the living area and hall. Custom colors, curtains, and 2" blinds through out. Open floor plan with long breakfast bar. Master bathroom has both garden tub and walk in shower. Fence has been recently updated with metal posts. Backs to a green belt and shares a fence with only one neighbor. Double pane windows, radiant barrier, and pest defense system. FEMA - Unknown

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Single story home
• Bonus room

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• PRIVATE CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE OASIS
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Elm Creek HOA); Quarterly HOA fee of $110; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community includes common grounds, playground, and park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two covered garage spaces (2-car garage); Six total parking spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Municipal sewer; Municipal water
• Home design: One-story home; Faces north; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Porch; Exterior steps; Wood fencing; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Main-level primary bedroom; Study; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,457 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,426
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17921 Basketflower Bnd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-6%)	5mo	$255,000	$177	76
12804 Sago Palm Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+0%)	10mo	$250,000	$163	73
18153 Basketflower Bnd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-6%)	5mo	$230,000	$160	62
17905 Basketflower Bnd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+12%)	12mo	$269,500	$158	61
17920 Honey Locust Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+2%)	5mo	$234,900	$150	60
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-3%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	60
13520 Knights Branch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$144	53
17808 Majestic Elm Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,448 (-5%)	10mo	$179,900	$124	51
17913 Honey Locust Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+9%)	2mo	$245,000	$147	51
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+9%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	46
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+9%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	45
17900 Honey Locust Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-13%)	11mo	$230,742	$174	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $111,480
• Equity at exit: $214,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $343,806
• Equity at exit: $462,187

Cash invested: $66,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,602/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,448

Max offer price $186,457

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-224	+0% $-291	+5% $-359	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-373	+0% $-291	+5% $-209	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-231	base $-291	+0.5pp $-353	+1.0pp $-416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,475
• Closing costs: $7,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.43mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	0.60mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.60mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.70mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.71mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.72mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.75mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.78mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.78mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.79mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.92mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.92mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	0.93mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	0.96mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.96mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	1.01mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $237,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $239,900 Active
16. 2015-06-01
    soldstatus
17. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus Sold 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    This dream home has been extremely well cared for. In addition to 3 bedrooms, it has a private office, beautiful hardwood floors and 6" baseboards in the living area and hall. Custom colors, curtains, and 2" blinds through out. Open floor plan with long breakfast bar. Master bathroom has both garden tub and walk in shower. Fence has been recently updated with metal posts. Backs to a green belt and shares a fence with only one neighbor. Double pane windows, radiant barrier, and pest defense system. FEMA - Unknown

18. 2015-04-30
    status Pending 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    This dream home has been extremely well cared for. In addition to 3 bedrooms, it has a private office, beautiful hardwood floors and 6" baseboards in the living area and hall. Custom colors, curtains, and 2" blinds through out. Open floor plan with long breakfast bar. Master bathroom has both garden tub and walk in shower. Fence has been recently updated with metal posts. Backs to a green belt and shares a fence with only one neighbor. Double pane windows, radiant barrier, and pest defense system. FEMA - Unknown

19. 2015-04-16
    listed $147,500 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    This dream home has been extremely well cared for. In addition to 3 bedrooms, it has a private office, beautiful hardwood floors and 6" baseboards in the living area and hall. Custom colors, curtains, and 2" blinds through out. Open floor plan with long breakfast bar. Master bathroom has both garden tub and walk in shower. Fence has been recently updated with metal posts. Backs to a green belt and shares a fence with only one neighbor. Double pane windows, radiant barrier, and pest defense system. FEMA - Unknown

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,602 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,602 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,326
• − Property taxes: −$6,602
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$6,921
• Taxable loss: −$7,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+62.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $239,900 Unlock MLS
• 2015-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-04-30 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2015-04-16 Listed $147,500 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,602 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.