238 Road 590108 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$166,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $104/sqft · 6% below area Est $178k · 6% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $167k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $146,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,990
• List price: $166,990
• Delta: -6.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
673 Maria Elena Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-12%)	1mo	$180,991	$128	67
735 Road 5714	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	17mo	$185,990	$116	62
2108 County Road 3556	0.55mi	3/3.5	1,800 (+12%)	10mo	$239,900	$133	41
243 Road 5821	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	18mo	$208,990	$116	40
258 Road 5821	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	18mo	$179,990	$100	40
226 Road 5821	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	16mo	$176,990	$98	39
1200 Road 5823	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	15mo	$211,990	$118	35
1777 Road 5722	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+13%)	14mo	$295,000	$163	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,004
• Equity at exit: $24,899

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $18,576
• Equity at exit: $14,438

Cash invested: $46,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $166,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,748
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	13d	1	0.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $166,990 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $166,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,990 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,990 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $167,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,990 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $169,990 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $177,990 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $192,990 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $197,990 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $210,990 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

20. 2025-12-18
    listed $211,100 Active 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,354
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable income: $229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $177,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $192,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $210,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $211,100 HARMLS