238 Road 590108 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$152,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 233 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $96/sqft · 12% below area Est $174k · 12% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 57971240 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 B1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room adds everyday convenience.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 232 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $153k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $134,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.57%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,422
• List price: $152,990
• Delta: -12.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
234 Road 590108	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,417 (-11%)	0mo	$166,990	$118	80
673 Maria Elena Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-12%)	2mo	$180,991	$128	66
735 Road 5714	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	18mo	$185,990	$116	61
2108 County Road 3556	0.55mi	3/3.5	1,800 (+12%)	12mo	$239,900	$133	40
243 Road 5821	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	19mo	$208,990	$116	39
258 Road 5821	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	19mo	$179,990	$100	38
226 Road 5821	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	18mo	$176,990	$98	38
1200 Road 5823	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	17mo	$211,990	$118	34
1777 Road 5722	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+13%)	16mo	$295,000	$163	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,766
• Equity at exit: $22,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $50,121
• Equity at exit: $13,228

Cash invested: $42,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.7 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $177,990 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 142 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $152,990

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $554	-5% $501	+0% $449	+5% $396	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $373	+0% $449	+5% $524	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $488	base $449	+0.5pp $409	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,248
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	0.09mi
707 Road 5819 Unit NA Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	0d	1	0.59mi
1683 County Road 3556 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$1,595	$0.95	9d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $152,990 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $152,990 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $152,990 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $152,990 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $152,990 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $152,990 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $152,990 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $152,990 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $154,490 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $154,490 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $154,490 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $154,490 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $154,490 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $154,490 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $154,490 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $154,490 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $154,490 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $154,490 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $154,490 Active 209 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $154,490 Active 208 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $154,490 Active 207 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $154,490 Active 206 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $154,490 Active 205 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $154,490 Active 204 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    price $154,490 Active 203 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $162,990 Active 203 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $162,990 Active 201 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $162,990 Active 200 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $162,990 Active 199 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $162,990 Active 198 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $162,990 Active 197 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $162,990 Active 196 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $162,990 Active 195 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $162,990 Active 194 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $162,990 Active 193 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $162,990 Active 192 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $162,990 Active 191 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $162,990 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $166,990 Active 186 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $166,990 Active 185 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $166,990 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    price $166,990 Active 181 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $167,990 Active 181 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $167,990 Active 180 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $167,990 Active 179 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $167,990 Active 177 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $167,990 Active 173 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $167,990 Active 172 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $167,990 Active 171 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $167,990 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $3,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$754
• After-tax cash flow: $4,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southside El F TX #3,759/4,322 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $177,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $192,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $210,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $211,100 HARMLS