504 W Utah Ave · Jal, NM 88252

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2015 8,400 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-kept 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,053 square feet of comfortable living space. This charming single-wide has been lovingly maintained and is move-in ready, featuring a functional layout, spacious primary suite, and a warm, inviting feel throughout. All appliances stay, making your move even easier. This home is a great opportunity in Jal, NM.

Key facts

• 8,400 sq ft lot
• Built 2015
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Manufactured house (single wide); One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#39 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Jal Public Schools (rural): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #85 of 95 in NM (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Lea County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Lea County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,655 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,312
• Equity at exit: $39,992

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $41,583
• Equity at exit: $56,515

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88252

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $105,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 370-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $1,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jal Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501350
• Math proficiency: 7% —
• Reading proficiency: 13% —
• Median HH income: $47,305
• Composite: 13.01/100
• National rank: #14526
• State rank: #85 of 95 in NM

Livability — Jal

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #11950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jal, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,069

Population outlook (Lea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,268 people
• By 2030: 91,695 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 108,366 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 126,264 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 170,606 · +102.5%
• By 2100: 199,235 · +136.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 39% Two or more races 39% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Lea

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.5% · R 80.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+48.5 2012: R+49.7 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 63.0453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $105,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $93 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.