7398 Valley View Ln · Coffee City, TX 75763

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1990 0.89 ac lot $67/sqft · 47% below area Est $142k · 47% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a QUIET LAKE COMMUNITY on Lake Palestine, this fixer-upper offers a rare opportunity to create an affordable lake house tailored to your vision! The home serves as a blank canvas for a handyman or buyer ready to renovate and build equity! With community lake access and the charm of lake living, this property is ideal for a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or your next investment project! Bring your ideas and make it your own before someone scoops up this gem!

Key facts

• Lake community
• Lake access
• 0.89 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.0% in Coffee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#845 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.67%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,848
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -47.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $74,954
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.25×
• Total profit: $193,937
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75763

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Located in a QUIET LAKE COMMUNITY on Lake Palestine, this fixer-upper offers a rare opportunity to create an affordable lake house tailored to your vision! The home serves as a blank canvas for a handyman or buyer ready to renovate and build equity! With community lake access and the charm of lake living, this property is ideal for a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or your next investment project! Bring your ideas and make it your own before someone scoops up this gem!

17. 2026-01-27
    listed $74,900 Active 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Located in a QUIET LAKE COMMUNITY on Lake Palestine, this fixer-upper offers a rare opportunity to create an affordable lake house tailored to your vision! The home serves as a blank canvas for a handyman or buyer ready to renovate and build equity! With community lake access and the charm of lake living, this property is ideal for a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or your next investment project! Bring your ideas and make it your own before someone scoops up this gem!

18. 2011-12-15
    soldstatus
19. 2004-08-11
    soldstatus
20. 2004-02-09
    soldstatus
21. 2004-02-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$18/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,294
• − Management: −$1,294
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $5,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coffee City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #15290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coffee City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,319

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.53%
• Current HPI: 295.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-01-27 Listed $74,900 GTAR
• 2011-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.