Ramsey Plan · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$263,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• LOW-MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $263,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 957 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,905 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,490
• List price: $263,999
• Delta: -11.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Cascade Falls Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	2mo	$244,999	$142	94
120 Cascade Falls Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	3mo	$250,990	$143	90
104 Cascade Falls Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	3mo	$290,999	$153	77
141 Southridge Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	4mo	$301,990	$185	76
109 White Rock Trl	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,858 (+8%)	3mo	$324,990	$175	74
284 Cascade Falls Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (+4%)	1mo	$276,999	$154	72
268 Cascade Falls Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	1mo	$282,999	$149	68
128 Cascade Falls Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	1mo	$261,990	$133	68
109 Cascade Falls Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	4mo	$281,999	$145	68
104 Southridge Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	5mo	$311,999	$160	66
260 Cascade Falls Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	2mo	$291,499	$150	59
276 Cascade Falls Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	2mo	$288,499	$148	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-72,542
• Equity at exit: $44,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-111,395
• Equity at exit: $25,721

Cash invested: $83,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.4 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $303,038 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 957
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $257,098

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-176	+0% $-279	+5% $-382	+10% $-485
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-368	+0% $-279	+5% $-190	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-203	base $-279	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,372
• Closing costs: $8,925
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	139d	1	0.09mi
121 Standing Rock Ln Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.5	1726	$2,150	$1.25	42d	1	0.14mi
321 Lone Cedar Rd Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$2,300	$1.22	24d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $263,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $263,999 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $263,999 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $263,999 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $263,999 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $263,999 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $263,999 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $263,999 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $259,999 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $259,999 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    price $259,999 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $255,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $255,999 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $255,999 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $255,999 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $255,999 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $255,999 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $254,999 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $254,999 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $254,999 Active 193 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $254,999 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $254,999 Active 190 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $254,999 Active 189 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $254,999 Active 188 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $254,999 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $254,999 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $254,999 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $254,999 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $254,999 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $254,999 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $254,999 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $254,999 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $254,999 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $254,999 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $254,999 Active 177 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $254,999 Active 176 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $254,999 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $254,999 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $256,999 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $256,999 Active 171 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $256,999 Active 170 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $256,999 Active 169 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $259,999 Active 168 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $259,999 Active 165 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $259,999 Active 163 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $259,999 Active 162 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $259,999 Active 160 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $259,999 Active 158 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,999 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,664
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − Depreciation: −$8,654
• Taxable loss: −$8,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,600–$25,800 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a low-maintenance design, ideal for modern lifestyles. It has a good roof, exterior, and landscaping, with no visible repairs needed. Painting the exterior and improving landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Colt El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Marble Falls Middle F TX #858/1,662 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Marble Falls H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 50,492 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $259,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $259,990 Zillow