Ramsey Plan · Marble Falls, TX 78654

$261,099

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home boasts a low-maintenance design ideal for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to encourage seamless transitions and multitasking. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, with a luxurious owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• LOW-MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $261,099 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $261k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 1072 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,457 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,490
• List price: $261,099
• Delta: -12.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Cascade Falls Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	4mo	$244,999	$142	93
120 Cascade Falls Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	4mo	$250,990	$143	88
212 Rock Springs Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,682 (-2%)	1mo	$297,895	$177	88
313 Southridge Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$240,999	$140	84
305 Southridge Trl	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	0mo	$245,999	$140	82
312 Feldspar Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$242,999	$138	80
104 Cascade Falls Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	4mo	$290,999	$153	76
284 Cascade Falls Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (+4%)	2mo	$276,999	$154	70
268 Cascade Falls Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+10%)	3mo	$282,999	$149	67
128 Cascade Falls Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	3mo	$261,990	$133	67
260 Cascade Falls Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	4mo	$291,499	$150	58
276 Cascade Falls Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+13%)	3mo	$288,499	$148	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-71,806
• Equity at exit: $44,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-109,923
• Equity at exit: $25,721

Cash invested: $83,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 80 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $302,090 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78654

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 1072
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,462/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $258,873

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-164	+0% $-267	+5% $-370	+10% $-472
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-356	+0% $-267	+5% $-177	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-191	base $-267	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,372
• Closing costs: $8,925
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
252 Rock Springs Dr Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	184d	1	0.09mi
121 Standing Rock Ln Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.5	1726	$2,150	$1.25	87d	1	0.14mi
185 Grey Slate Ave Marble Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	33d	1	0.25mi
324 Heatherwood Ter Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,450	$1.32	0d	1	0.25mi
321 Lone Cedar Rd Marble Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1881	$2,300	$1.22	69d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $261,099 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $261,099 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $261,099 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $259,099 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $259,099 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $259,099 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   price $259,099 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-11-02
   days on market $258,999 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-11-01
   days on market $258,999 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-10-31
    days on market $258,999 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-10-30
    days on market $258,999 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-10-29
    days on market $258,999 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-10-28
    days on market $258,999 Active 254 DOM
14. 2026-10-27
    days on market $258,999 Active 253 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $258,999 Active 252 DOM
16. 2026-10-26
    days on market $258,999 Active 251 DOM
17. 2026-10-24
    days on market $258,999 Active 250 DOM
18. 2026-10-23
    days on market $258,999 Active 249 DOM
19. 2026-10-22
    days on market $258,999 Active 248 DOM
20. 2026-10-21
    days on market $258,999 Active 247 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    days on market $258,999 Active 246 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $258,999 Active 245 DOM
23. 2026-10-19
    price $258,999 Active 244 DOM
24. 2026-10-18
    days on market $263,999 Active 244 DOM
25. 2026-10-17
    days on market $263,999 Active 243 DOM
26. 2026-10-16
    days on market $263,999 Active 242 DOM
27. 2026-10-15
    days on market $263,999 Active 241 DOM
28. 2026-10-14
    days on market $263,999 Active 240 DOM
29. 2026-10-13
    days on market $263,999 Active 239 DOM
30. 2026-10-12
    days on market $263,999 Active 238 DOM
31. 2026-10-11
    days on market $263,999 Active 237 DOM
32. 2026-10-10
    days on market $263,999 Active 236 DOM
33. 2026-10-09
    days on market $263,999 Active 235 DOM
34. 2026-10-08
    days on market $263,999 Active 234 DOM
35. 2026-10-07
    days on market $263,999 Active 233 DOM
36. 2026-10-06
    days on market $263,999 Active 232 DOM
37. 2026-10-05
    days on market $263,999 Active 231 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $263,999 Active 230 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $263,999 Active 229 DOM
40. 2026-10-02
    days on market $263,999 Active 228 DOM
41. 2026-10-01
    days on market $263,999 Active 227 DOM
42. 2026-09-30
    days on market $263,999 Active 226 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    days on market $263,999 Active 225 DOM
44. 2026-09-28
    days on market $263,999 Active 224 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $263,999 Active 223 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $263,999 Active 221 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $263,999 Active 220 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $263,999 Active 219 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $263,999 Active 218 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $263,999 Active 217 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,664
• − Property taxes: −$4,462
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$8,654
• Taxable loss: −$8,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,026
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,600–$25,800 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a low-maintenance design, ideal for modern lifestyles. It has a good roof, exterior, and landscaping, with no visible repairs needed. Painting the exterior and improving landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Colt El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Marble Falls Middle F TX #858/1,662 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Marble Falls H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Marble Falls

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Falls, TX
• County: Burnet County · 50,492 people
• City population: 20,650
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,650
• Household income: $74,130
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 252.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $259,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $259,990 Zillow