2613 Forest Lk #46 · Santa Ana, CA 92705

$348,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition Est $362k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Senior Living 55+ Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2 bath home in a desirable 5 Star 55+ community. Designed for comfortable living and effortless entertaining. A welcoming front entry with an attached 2-car garage leads you inside to an open concept living, dining, and kitchen area. The living room opens to a fabulous patio and spacious yard, creating the perfect space to relax, entertain, and enjoy indoor-outdoor living. A convenient laundry room leads to the private primary suite, featuring large windows, a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower and soaking garden tub. Second bedroom has private bathroom which offers new walk in Tub. With its inviting layout, wo

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open concept living
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• FABULOUS PATIO
• SPACIOUS YARD
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private paved road frontage; Subdivision: Lake Park I (LKP1)
• Financial info: Land lease of $1,746.77 per month (park source)
• HOA & community: Part of association; Senior community; Park name: Lake Park Santa Ana North; Community features: street lighting, sidewalks; Manager approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Garage with two doors; Concrete driveway; Gated with direct garage access
• Security: Gated community; Resident manager; Smoke detector
• Utilities: Electricity on property; 220V in laundry; Natural gas connected; Water district/public connected; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Cable available; Telephone in street; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Faces west; Zero lot line; Mobile home remains (model LP641A0, 24' x 52'); Fixer condition; Has view; 2+ access exits
• Construction: Hardboard construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch with concrete; Awning; Rain gutters; Porch - front; In-ground community heated pool; Has patio; Masonry fencing; Sprinklers in front, on side, with timer; Landscaped yard; Walkstreet; Yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Pots & pan drawers; Built-in range; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Vented exhaust fan; Water heater unit; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on ground floor; Two primary bedrooms; Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Walk-in shower; Shower in tub; Double sinks in master bath; Privacy toilet door; Linen closet/storage; Closet in bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling (electric); Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Built-ins; Pantry; Sliding glass door(s); Screens; Smoke detector; Resident manager; Gated community; In-ground community heated spa; No interior steps; 2+ access exits; Low pile carpeting
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room; Laundry in kitchen area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $348k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Ana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#871 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange Unified (urban): math 39% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #127 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairhaven Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 445 students, 64% FRL); Portola Middle (597 students, 91% FRL); Orange High (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,807 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,846 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,920
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2509 Park Lk #182	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$330,000	$264	89
2544 Park Lk	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$370,000	$275	80
2512 View Lk #159	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	8mo	$325,000	$246	78
2545 Shadow Lk #127	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	9mo	$325,000	$242	74
2624 View Lk	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+8%)	13mo	$397,000	$294	71
2612 Park	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$390,000	$290	65
2612 Park Lake, #102	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$390,000	$290	65
2533 View Lk #150	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,384 (+11%)	18mo	$386,000	$279	62
2505 Park Lk	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$397,500	$296	61
2613 PARK Lk	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	20mo	$439,900	$314	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-51,866
• Equity at exit: $51,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-32,727
• Equity at exit: $30,089

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92705

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $348,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $155	+0% $35	+5% $-85	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-87	+0% $35	+5% $157	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $123	base $35	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Fairhaven Ave Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,879	$3.20	0d	6	0.27mi
700 E Lake Dr #77 Orange, CA	1.0	1.0	768	$2,695	$3.51	0d	1	0.36mi
1200 Fairhaven Ave Santa Ana, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$2,388	$3.29	4d	4	0.41mi
1201 Fairhaven Ave Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$3,275	$3.79	0d	9	0.46mi
1950 E Santa Clara Ave Unit T040 Santa Ana, CA	1.0	1.0	775	$2,185	$2.82	23d	1	0.57mi
1950 E Santa Clara Ave Unit T013 Santa Ana, CA	1.0	1.0	775	$2,185	$2.82	26d	1	0.57mi
2414 N Tustin Ave Santa Ana, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$2,933	$3.97	0d	29	0.58mi
660 S Glassell St Orange, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	708	$2,700	$3.81	11d	4	0.59mi
660 S Glassell St Orange, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	711	$2,650	$3.72	0d	3	0.59mi
340 W Fairway Dr Apt B Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	14d	1	0.66mi
452 S Shaffer St Unit 454 Orange, CA	3.0	1.0	730	$3,095	$4.24	45d	1	0.66mi
478 S Grand St Orange, CA	3.0	1.0	1066	$3,995	$3.75	11d	1	0.67mi
478 S Grand St Orange, CA	3.0	1.0	1066	$4,195	$3.94	16d	1	0.67mi
480 S Grand St Unit 478 Orange, CA	3.0	1.0	1066	$3,995	$3.75	6d	1	0.67mi
619 S Cypress St Unit B Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	45d	1	0.71mi
1920 Sherry Ln Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,995	$2.77	26d	1	0.74mi
344 W Tularosa Ave Unit Tularosa 344 (C) Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,495	$2.63	20d	1	0.74mi
344 W Tularosa Ave Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,495	$2.63	26d	1	0.74mi
602 S Cypress St Unit B Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,495	$2.63	13d	1	0.75mi
316 W La Veta Ave Unit 326 C Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,475	$2.48	0d	1	0.76mi
819 S Ponderosa St Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,980	$2.29	45d	1	0.78mi
336 W La Veta Ave Unit D Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,750	$2.55	45d	1	0.78mi
408 W La Veta Ave Orange, CA	3.0	2.0	1439	$4,000	$2.78	45d	1	0.80mi
535 E Van Bibber Ave Unit 535 Orange, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$3,700	$4.62	45d	1	0.80mi
610 E Palmyra Ave Orange, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$3,100	$3.60	45d	1	0.82mi
326 S Waverly St Apt 4 Orange, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$2,995	$3.19	26d	1	0.82mi
850 W Town and Country Rd Orange, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,753	$3.72	0d	21	0.83mi
401 W La Veta Ave Orange, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1152	$2,595	$2.25	11d	6	0.84mi
2215 E Avalon Ave Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,400	$1.06	45d	1	0.85mi
2210 E Avalon Ave Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1325	$3,750	$2.83	0d	1	0.85mi
2210 E Avalon Ave Unit 2210 Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1325	$3,800	$2.87	45d	1	0.85mi
2243 E Santa Clara Ave Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,925	$2.95	26d	3	0.87mi
1800 E La Veta Ave Orange, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$2,542	$3.78	45d	1	0.90mi
236 E Washington Ave Orange, CA	1.0	1.0	850	$2,995	$3.52	45d	1	0.92mi
1600 Mabury St Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,595	$2.43	45d	1	0.93mi
1000 W Town and Country Rd Orange, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,874	$3.84	0d	27	0.94mi
2311 Valencia St Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1422	$4,500	$3.16	0d	1	0.95mi
1055 W Town and Country Rd Orange, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$3,575	$3.34	0d	1	0.96mi
304 E Almond Ave Unit 12 Orange, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,375	$2.79	8d	1	0.98mi
2232 E Lenita Ln Unit K Santa Ana, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,695	$2.99	26d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $348,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $358,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $358,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $358,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $358,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $358,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $358,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $358,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $358,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $358,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,965
• − Management: −$2,965
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$5,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,307
• After-tax cash flow: $1,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home presents as needing moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through exterior painting, landscaping, and minor interior updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and some discoloration visible.
• Minor Landscaping — Some areas could benefit from more lush greenery and better maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping — A more lush and well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Siding repair — Repairing the weathered siding would improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and energy efficiency.
• Resale Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates inside would make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and some discoloration visible.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Some areas could benefit from more lush greenery and better maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A more lush and well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Siding repair — Repairing the weathered siding would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and energy efficiency. ↑
• Resale Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates inside would make the home more appealing to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $83,557
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2609
• State rank: #127 of 517 in CA

Livability — Santa Ana

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #23502

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Ana, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 288,255
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,781
• Household income: $129,331
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1962.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 34% Two or more races 17% Asian 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -831.43%
• Current HPI: 453.5303
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $358,900 CRMLS