Danford Plan · Billings, MT 59102

$193,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,307 sqft · Townhouse · 802 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 801 days

Tags

• SECURE UNDERGROUND PARKING
• COMMUNITY AND CLUB AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $193,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Danford); Plan inventory type
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,307

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Floor plan named Danford

🏗️ New construction. The $193,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,154.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $193k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 802 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 802 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,154
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3405 Arlene Cir	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,256 (-4%)	4mo	$229,900	$183	65
3116 Boulder Ave Ave #2	0.36mi	2/1.5	1,392 (+6%)	20mo	$239,900	$172	54
3819 Avenue D	0.55mi	2/1.5	1,212 (-7%)	14mo	$299,000	$247	48
1809 Greystone Drive Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+15%)	16mo	$332,700	$222	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-70,234
• Equity at exit: $43,263

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-78,549
• Equity at exit: $25,087

Cash invested: $81,243 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59102

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,352/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $227,900

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,538
• Closing costs: $8,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1965 Home Valley Dr Billings, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,194	$2.01	13d	6	0.22mi
3635 Harvest Time Ln Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1501	$2,799	$1.86	13d	10	0.29mi
3011 Boulder Ave Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	13d	1	0.48mi
1550 Country Manor Blvd Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,578	$1.45	13d	10	0.77mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $193,000 Active 802 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,000 Active 801 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,000 Active 800 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,000 Active 799 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,000 Active 798 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $193,000 Active 796 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,000 Active 795 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $193,000 Active 793 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,000 Active 792 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $193,000 Active 791 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,000 Active 790 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $193,000 Active 787 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,000 Active 785 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,000 Active 784 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,000 Active 783 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $193,000 Active 782 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,253
• − Property taxes: −$4,352
• − Insurance: −$1,451
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − Depreciation: −$8,441
• Taxable loss: −$10,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,496
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Billings H S
• NCES district ID: 3003900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,863
• Composite: 31.93/100
• National rank: #5848
• State rank: #69 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 47,977
• Household income: $76,141
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.20%
• Current HPI: 205.0915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B