10462 Grandjean Rd · Henderson, NY 13650

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1955 0.40 ac lot Est $140k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Year around home, ready to move into. Remodled, new dry wall, new wood stove, refrigerator, electric range, flooring, carpet, large bath with large walk in shower. Family room across back of home with wood stove and great view of the private back yard. Large storage shed, I think at one time was a garage on left side. Great first home, retired couple or anyone that likes to fish & hunt. 3 ROW to Walking distance to Stoney Creek. Call today and take a look for yourself.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Wood stove
• Near lake ontario

Tags

• RUSTIC STONE ACCENTS
• WOOD STOVE
• GENEROUS LOT
• NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCHES
• LOCAL ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Blown-in insulation; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (75 x 230)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($207/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,094 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Belleville-Henderson Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #386 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,179 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10508 Grandjean Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	784 (-11%)	9mo	$125,000	$159	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $49,562
• Equity at exit: $83,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $143,864
• Equity at exit: $174,049

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13650

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,739/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 408-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,739
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$885
• − Management: −$885
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$1,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
• After-tax cash flow: $557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville-Henderson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,416
• Composite: 42.68/100
• National rank: #3175
• State rank: #386 of 590 in NY

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1094
• US rank: #22239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,268

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 6% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.11%
• Current HPI: 362.0739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+61.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $100,000 CNYIS
• 2014-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-20 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CNYIS
• 2013-12-13 Listed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2013-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $22,034 Public Records
• 2006-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,739 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.