2061 Pine Lake Dr · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$125,000

2 bd · None ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1973 Poor condition $174/sqft · at area comps Est $131k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Mountain Retreat in Heber-Overgaard & ndash; 2 Bed / 1 Bath on Spacious Lot Escape to the cool mountain air of Heber-Overgaard with this cozy and surprisingly spacious 720 sq. ft. home nestled among the tall pines. This well-laid-out 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom property offers an open feel with plenty of natural light, making it perfect as a full-time residence, weekend getaway, vacation rental, or investment property. The home features a roomy living area, functional kitchen with ample cabinet space, and comfortable bedrooms that make excellent use of the square footage. Outside, you& apos; ll enjoy a peaceful setting with mature trees, fenced yard space, and two outbuildings

Key facts

• Mountain retreat
• Fenced yard
• Two outbuildings

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• FENCED YARD
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• QUIET LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.27%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,636
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 18.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2065 Pine Lake Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	17mo	$134,900	$187	85
2065 Pine Lake Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	721 (+0%)	17mo	$134,900	$187	85
3504 Rae Cir	0.55mi	2/1.0	785 (+9%)	3mo	$148,000	$189	56
3575 Quail Run Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0	670 (-7%)	9mo	$129,000	$193	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,410
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $35,667
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $430	+0% $387	+5% $344	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $324	+0% $387	+5% $449	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $419	base $387	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $125,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $125,000 Active 1545-char remark
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $155,000 Active 1389-char remark
16. 2007-12-27
    historical
17. 2007-07-12
    listed $99,900
18. 2007-06-14
    historical
19. 2006-06-21
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$677
• After-tax cash flow: $3,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations, including kitchen and bathroom updates, exterior and landscaping improvements, HVAC and mechanical system upgrades, and a thorough foundation and structure inspection. Significant value can be added through these improvements, making it a promising investment property.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cleaning — Kitchen appears cluttered and in need of cleaning.
• Minor Paint touch-up — Paint appears dull and possibly chipped in the visible area.
• Major Appliance replacement — No visible appliances in the kitchen, suggesting they may be outdated or non-existent.
• Extensive Bathroom renovation — No visible bathrooms in the photo, indicating a complete renovation is needed.
• Extensive Exterior and landscaping — No visible exterior or landscaping in the photo, indicating significant work is needed to improve curb appeal and structure condition.
• Extensive HVAC/mechanical systems — No visible HVAC or mechanical systems in the photo, indicating a complete replacement or upgrade is needed.
• Extensive Foundation/structure inspection — No visible foundation or structure in the photo, indicating a thorough inspection is needed to assess stability and condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen with updated appliances would significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Bathroom renovation — A modern bathroom with updated fixtures and finishes would significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Exterior and landscaping — A fresh coat of paint, new siding, and landscaping would significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC/mechanical systems upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Foundation/structure inspection and repair — Ensuring the foundation and structure are in good condition would increase both resale and rental value by addressing any potential safety or structural issues.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cleaning · Kitchen appears cluttered and in need of cleaning.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint touch-up · Paint appears dull and possibly chipped in the visible area.	Minor	$500–3,000
Appliance replacement · No visible appliances in the kitchen, suggesting they may be outdated or non-existent.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom renovation · No visible bathrooms in the photo, indicating a complete renovation is needed.	Extensive	$500–3,000
Exterior and landscaping · No visible exterior or landscaping in the photo, indicating significant work is needed to improve curb appeal and structure condition.	Extensive	$500–3,000
HVAC/mechanical systems · No visible HVAC or mechanical systems in the photo, indicating a complete replacement or upgrade is needed.	Extensive	$500–3,000
Foundation/structure inspection · No visible foundation or structure in the photo, indicating a thorough inspection is needed to assess stability and condition.	Extensive	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$18,000–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen with updated appliances would significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — A modern bathroom with updated fixtures and finishes would significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Exterior and landscaping — A fresh coat of paint, new siding, and landscaping would significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical systems upgrade — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Foundation/structure inspection and repair — Ensuring the foundation and structure are in good condition would increase both resale and rental value by addressing any potential safety or structural issues. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2007-12-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-07-12 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2007-06-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-06-21 Listed $99,900 ARMLS