302 Bighorn Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$25,000

1 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1992 3,484 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Good things do come in small packages! Take a look at this Lake Gaston Retreat! This GEM is in the Camping Section of River Ridge within walking distance to the Bath House. The current owners have remodeled with a new kitchen space, new Luxury vinyl plank flooring, new beadboard paneling, new electrical wiring, freshly painted interior & exterior, new doors, new windows, new T 1-11 siding & a new metal roof! Most Furnishings convey! Adorable & Fun! Large lot backing up to a natural wooded area for enjoying the wildlife! Wooded Community property on the right-side & backside offering privacy. Plenty of room to park an RV. RV hook up and Security cameras. Start enjoyin

Key facts

• New doors
• New kitchen space
• 3,484 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN SPACE
• NEW BEADBOARD PANELING
• NEW ELECTRICAL WIRING
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• NEW DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $909 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 49.9% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $528 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $355 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 155.81%
• DSCR: 7.93
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,400
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Bighorn Trl	0.00mi	1/—	400 (0%)	1mo	$23,000	$58	99
18 Blackfoot Trl	0.12mi	1/1.0	396 (-1%)	6mo	$45,000	$114	88
109 Des Moines Trl	0.17mi	2/2.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	0mo	$30,000	$75	87
307 Allegheny Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (+1)	425 (+6%)	10mo	$60,000	$141	64
177 Happy Trl	0.47mi	1/1.0	350 (-12%)	5mo	$40,000	$114	53
478 Laramie Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (+1)	380 (-5%)	10mo	$67,500	$178	48
40 Mohawk Trl	0.69mi	2/1.0 (+1)	352 (-12%)	10mo	$50,000	$142	35
379 Gila Trl	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	346 (-14%)	8mo	$86,000	$249	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.42×
• Total profit: $58,937
• Equity at exit: $9,086

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.78×
• Total profit: $131,463
• Equity at exit: $12,513

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $909

Break-even live

Break-even rent $304

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectricsecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $25,000
3. 2026-03-30
   price $29,995
4. 2026-03-09
   price $32,500
5. 2026-02-17
   listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,396
• − Management: −$1,396
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $11,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,694
• After-tax cash flow: $8,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $25,000 RVLG
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $29,995 RVLG
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $32,500 RVLG
• 2026-02-17 Listed $39,900 RVLG

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $23 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.