784 Maple Ln Unit 784M · Willow Springs, IL 60458

$43,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a playground, a fitness center, and community events, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 784 Maple Ln Unit 784M, Justice, IL 60458; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $43,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air
• Home design: Condominium (spec new construction, plan 92652); 1,056 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.7% vs local median 5.5% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Argo Chsd 217 (suburban): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #423 of 620 in IL (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $301 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,847 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.15%
• DSCR: 5.99
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $65,479
• Equity at exit: $6,486

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.36×
• Total profit: $150,486
• Equity at exit: $3,761

Cash invested: $12,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60458

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $1,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $381

Max offer price $43,500

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,875
• Closing costs: $1,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7601 Banks St Unit 2E Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	13d	1	0.40mi
8120 Concord Ln Unit H Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	1d	1	0.85mi
7915 S 84th Ave Unit 6 Justice, IL	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	1.19mi
8451 82nd St Unit 1N Justice, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,450	$1.77	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,500 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $43,500 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $43,500 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $43,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $43,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $43,500 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,437
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$1,265
• Taxable income: $13,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,309
• After-tax cash flow: $10,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home is in good condition with a good exterior and landscaping. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, but minor updates to the exterior, interior, and HVAC can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Rental Community amenities assessment — Assessing and potentially enhancing community amenities can attract more families and improve rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental Community amenities assessment — Assessing and potentially enhancing community amenities can attract more families and improve rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argo Chsd 217
• NCES district ID: 1704020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,451
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9026
• State rank: #423 of 620 in IL

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,153

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 18% Spanish 14% Arabic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.45%
• Current HPI: 220.3837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B