2912 Dudley Dr · Bartow, FL 33830

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1971 7,492 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and make this charming 3, 1 renovation bathroom your home. With no HOA and city water and sewer. Full fenced backyard and shed for storage . A/C replaced in 2021 and the roof was replaced in 2025. Located in a quiet neighborhood.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Full fenced backyard
• A/c replaced

Tags

• FULL FENCED BACKYARD
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• A/C REPLACED
• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (R-3); Unfurnished; Total rooms: 6

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage; Driveway parking; Open parking; Carport (listed capacity: 270 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on a 0.17-acre lot (approx. 75 x 100)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($336/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alturas Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 350 students, 61% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $225k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,031 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,254
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,757
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33830

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $92	+0% $28	+5% $-36	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-43	+0% $28	+5% $99	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $85	base $28	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3280 Denmark St Bartow, FL	3.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	25d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $225,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this charming 3, 1 renovation bathroom your home. With no HOA and city water and sewer. Full fenced backyard and shed for storage . A/C replaced in 2021 and the roof was replaced in 2025. Located in a quiet neighborhood.

17. 2026-05-19
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2026-05-17
    listed $220,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this charming 3, 1 renovation bathroom your home. With no HOA and city water and sewer. Full fenced backyard and shed for storage . A/C replaced in 2021 and the roof was replaced in 2025. Located in a quiet neighborhood.

19. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus $121,000
20. 2019-02-04
    soldstatus $120,999 Sold 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    AMAZING REHABBED PROPERTY WITH NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, NEW FLOORS, NEW PAINT IN & OUT, NEW REFRIGERATOR AND RANGE, NEW ROOF, NICE PROPERTY , YOU TO GOT TO SEE IT, COME AND PREVIEW IT TODAY. All information provided is not guaranteed and buyer should verify all information. Land, Site, and Tax Information.

21. 2018-11-16
    status Pending 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    AMAZING REHABBED PROPERTY WITH NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, NEW FLOORS, NEW PAINT IN & OUT, NEW REFRIGERATOR AND RANGE, NEW ROOF, NICE PROPERTY , YOU TO GOT TO SEE IT, COME AND PREVIEW IT TODAY. All information provided is not guaranteed and buyer should verify all information. Land, Site, and Tax Information.

22. 2018-11-03
    price $120,999 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    AMAZING REHABBED PROPERTY WITH NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, NEW FLOORS, NEW PAINT IN & OUT, NEW REFRIGERATOR AND RANGE, NEW ROOF, NICE PROPERTY , YOU TO GOT TO SEE IT, COME AND PREVIEW IT TODAY. All information provided is not guaranteed and buyer should verify all information. Land, Site, and Tax Information.

23. 2018-10-20
    price $121,999 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    AMAZING REHABBED PROPERTY WITH NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, NEW FLOORS, NEW PAINT IN & OUT, NEW REFRIGERATOR AND RANGE, NEW ROOF, NICE PROPERTY , YOU TO GOT TO SEE IT, COME AND PREVIEW IT TODAY. All information provided is not guaranteed and buyer should verify all information. Land, Site, and Tax Information.

24. 2018-09-29
    listed $122,999 Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    AMAZING REHABBED PROPERTY WITH NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, NEW FLOORS, NEW PAINT IN & OUT, NEW REFRIGERATOR AND RANGE, NEW ROOF, NICE PROPERTY , YOU TO GOT TO SEE IT, COME AND PREVIEW IT TODAY. All information provided is not guaranteed and buyer should verify all information. Land, Site, and Tax Information.

25. 2018-08-22
    soldstatus $74,000
26. 2018-08-21
    soldstatus $74,000 Sold
27. 2018-08-01
    status Pending
28. 2018-07-25
    status Active
29. 2018-07-13
    status Pending
30. 2018-07-07
    listed $85,000 Active
31. 2018-07-05
    historical
32. 2018-06-21
    price $91,500
33. 2018-06-18
    listed $95,900 Active
34. 2014-01-03
    soldstatus $24,250
35. 2013-11-29
    listed $32,000
36. 2007-02-21
    soldstatus $78,000
37. 2007-02-16
    soldstatus $78,000
38. 2006-08-01
    listed $80,000
39. 1971-12-01
    soldstatus $14,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$421/yr (+$35/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bartow

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #9835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,740
• Household income: $63,918
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.47%
• Current HPI: 333.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1420.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $225,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listed $220,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-04 Sold (MLS) $120,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-03 Price Changed $120,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-20 Price Changed $121,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-29 Listed $122,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-21 Sold (MLS) $74,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-07 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Price Changed $91,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-18 Listed $95,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-03 Sold (MLS) $24,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-29 Listed $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-16 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-01 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1971-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,447 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.