12 Valencia Rd #2 · Hilton Head Island, SC 29928

$519,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable golf cottage in Shipyard, updated in 2017 and refreshed in 2022 and 2023. New roof 7/2023, new furniture and paint 2/2022, new dryer 11/2022, new HVAC 5/2022, golf and lagoon views, open floor plan, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Shipyard offers golf, a beach club for property owners, and leisure trails. Enjoy the quiet privacy of a gated community and the convenience of walking to Hilton Head's "downtown" just minutes from Coligny, Celebration Park, multiple restaurants, shops and activities. This will be a fantastic rental, vacation, or permanent home. Excellent rentals over $35,000 gross earnings in 2023.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private beach club
• 27 holes of golf

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BEACH CLUB
• GOLF AND LAGOON VIEWS
• 27 HOLES OF GOLF
• SCENIC LEISURE TRAILS
• EASY ACCESS TO COLIGNY BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed for owner only
• HOA & community: Association covers common areas, insurance, grounds maintenance, building maintenance, pest control, sewer, trash and water; Community features include guard service and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: 2-story property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Front porch; Rear porch; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smooth ceilings; Cable TV; Window treatments; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $430k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $391k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#157 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Beaufort 01 (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #17 of 80 in SC (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 838 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,824 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (618 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,906/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 216% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Beaufort County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $390,587 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.59%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.21% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-11,973
• Equity at exit: $239,450

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $66,905
• Equity at exit: $373,823

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29928

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 838
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$653 /mo · $7,834/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$777
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $-1,282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,529

Max offer price $292,508

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Lagoon Rd Unit 1508866P Hilton Head Island, SC	2.0	2.0	742	$2,687	$3.62	13d	1	0.34mi
10 N Forest Beach Dr Unit 1470517P Hilton Head Island, SC	2.0	2.0	1323	$5,684	$4.30	21d	1	0.50mi
36 Deallyon Ave Unit 1498585P Hilton Head Island, SC	2.0	2.5	990	$2,706	$2.73	13d	1	0.72mi
125 Shipyard Dr #148 Hilton Head Island, SC	3.0	3.0	1400	$3,200	$2.29	43d	1	0.86mi
19 Lemoyne Ave Unit 1470518P Hilton Head Island, SC	2.0	2.5	1033	$2,673	$2.59	13d	1	1.00mi
10 Lemoyne Ave Unit 1322533P Hilton Head Island, SC	2.0	2.0	839	$4,267	$5.09	13d	1	1.01mi
77 Ocean Ln Unit 1316255P Hilton Head Island, SC	2.0	2.0	1162	$6,002	$5.17	13d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 695-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $519,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,834 · $653/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,834 · $653/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$7,834
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,750
• − Management: −$3,750
• − HOA: −$9,324
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$24,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaufort 01
• NCES district ID: 4501110
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,430
• Composite: 40.56/100
• National rank: #3699
• State rank: #17 of 80 in SC

Livability — Hilton Head Island

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #14648

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hilton Head Island, SC
• County: Beaufort County · 163,770 people
• City population: 40,243
• Metro: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC
• Population (ZIP): 15,785
• Household income: $97,576
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Beaufort County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,915 people
• By 2030: 227,272 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 253,861 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 275,126 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 311,022 · +46.8%
• By 2100: 321,286 · +51.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Beaufort

• 2024 margin: R (+14.5) · D 42.1% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.5 2020: R+10.0 2016: R+14.3 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Current HPI: 243.4136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+241.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $519,000 RSMLS
• 2024-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $529,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-08 Sold (MLS) $529,000 RSMLS
• 2024-03-12 Pending — RSMLS
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $529,000 RSMLS
• 2024-01-08 Relisted — RSMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listed $529,900 RSMLS
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) $480,000 RSMLS
• 2022-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $480,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-30 Listed $499,000 RSMLS
• 1998-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records
• 1984-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $151,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,834 · +53.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.