105 W Herndon Ave #18 · Fresno, CA 93650

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1976 $96/sqft · 8% above area Est $111k · 8% over ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, Bright and move in ready in a Desirable community! Step into this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home filled with natural light and thought-out upgrades. Fresh interior paint, newer flooring and carpeting set the stage for comfortable living. The open concept layout features a dining area with charming built-in hutch that flows into the living room. A generously sized kitchen makes meal prep a breeze. Ceiling fans throughout keep the home comfortable. There's also an extra room area perfect for office or cozy den. Enjoy peace of mind with a new AC unit and water heater. Plus the convenience of a new ramp and steps. Covered parking and an outside storage unit. Located in a secure, gated community access to resort style amenities including a large swimming pool relaxing spa, spacious activity room and pool tables. Rent is $730.38 -that includes water and sewer. Buyer needs to qualify, call community office.

Key facts

• Thought-out upgrades
• New ac unit
• Covered parking

Tags

• THOUGHT-OUT UPGRADES
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW WATER HEATER
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.09%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 8.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 W Herndon Ave #192	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$112,000	$90	92
221 W Herndon Ave #130	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,275 (+2%)	2mo	$119,500	$94	88
221 W Herndon Ave #120	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$110,000	$92	84
105 Herndon #60	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	0mo	$120,000	$93	83
221 W Herndon Ave #27	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	1mo	$66,000	$57	79
221 W Herndon Ave #107	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	2mo	$95,000	$82	79
221 W Herndon Ave #166	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	9mo	$129,900	$113	73
221 W Herndon Ave #41	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$100,000	$74	70
221 W Herndon Ave #164	0.21mi	2/1.8	1,152 (-8%)	10mo	$85,000	$74	68
221 W Herndon Ave #148	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	13mo	$70,000	$52	68
221 W Herndon #125	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	7mo	$59,000	$55	65
221 W Herndon Ave #184	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$69,900	$52	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $115,394
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.94×
• Total profit: $300,337
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $328/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 W Sierra Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1291	$2,500	$1.94	16d	1	0.35mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	3d	1	0.73mi
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	0.77mi
6052 N College Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	44d	1	0.79mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.85mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	2d	2	0.89mi
6515 N Orchard St Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	16d	1	0.98mi
445 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	3d	2	1.01mi
5669 N Fresno St Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,537	$1.68	2d	10	1.12mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	3d	1	1.12mi
7579 N Angus St Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	24d	1	1.13mi
584 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,425	$1.58	44d	1	1.14mi
485 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,452	$1.60	3d	8	1.15mi
7580 N Angus St Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	44d	1	1.16mi
445 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,820	$2.15	2d	10	1.21mi
1249 W Spruce Ave Unit 1249 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,975	$1.58	10d	1	1.25mi
7087 N Thorne Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$1,495	$1.90	2d	1	1.26mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$1,974	$1.83	2d	21	1.28mi
1271 W Spruce Ave Unit 1271 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.29mi
7722 N Angus St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,575	$1.92	3d	1	1.30mi
5721 N Callisch Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1393	$1,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.30mi
7166 N Fruit Ave #179 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	884	$1,625	$1.84	2d	1	1.33mi
7625 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,625	$2.20	2d	2	1.36mi
5270 N San Pablo Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	903	$1,545	$1.71	3d	2	1.39mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-01-21
    listed $120,000 Active 938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (938 chars)

    Spacious, Bright and move in ready in a Desirable community! Step into this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home filled with natural light and thought-out upgrades. Fresh interior paint, newer flooring and carpeting set the stage for comfortable living. The open concept layout features a dining area with charming built-in hutch that flows into the living room. A generously sized kitchen makes meal prep a breeze. Ceiling fans throughout keep the home comfortable. There's also an extra room area perfect for office or cozy den. Enjoy peace of mind with a new AC unit and water heater. Plus the convenience of a new ramp and steps. Covered parking and an outside storage unit. Located in a secure, gated community access to resort style amenities including a large swimming pool relaxing spa, spacious activity room and pool tables. Rent is $730.38 -that includes water and sewer. Buyer needs to qualify, call community office.

16. 2025-10-01
    price $142,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $328 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 178.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$328
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $7,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $120,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $142,500 FRESNOMLS