11746 Gammon Ave · New Fairview, TX 76078

$290,899

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2025 5,445 sqft lot Est $287k · at est. $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

A single-story home with enough space for families or anyone in search of extra space. Enter into the home to find three secondary bedrooms, a laundry room and a full-sized bathroom toward the front. The open layout shared among the dining room, family room and kitchen with center island provides a seamless transition between the shared living spaces. While the owner’s suite features an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 5,445 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 631 students, 54% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,101 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11746 Gammon Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	1mo	$290,899	$175	100
11559 Antrim Pl	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	2mo	$273,399	$164	88
11527 Gammon Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	2mo	$309,174	$185	87
11514 Gammon Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	7mo	$311,534	$187	83
12419 Lost Rock Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	7mo	$267,574	$161	79
12916 Kingsgate Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,658 (-0%)	5mo	$272,000	$164	70
12418 Worthington Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (-4%)	5mo	$265,000	$166	67
12321 Shine Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-3%)	5mo	$269,900	$167	63
11850 Gabbro Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-13%)	3mo	$249,000	$172	61
11811 Mancos Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	6mo	$256,099	$174	61
11716 Mancos Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	7mo	$254,024	$172	58
12826 Carpenter Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	3mo	$272,500	$177	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $138,458
• Equity at exit: $262,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $423,608
• Equity at exit: $565,153

Cash invested: $81,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,363/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,599

Max offer price $245,385

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-214	+0% $-315	+5% $-415	+10% $-516
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-401	+0% $-315	+5% $-228	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-241	base $-315	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,725
• Closing costs: $8,727
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11846 Arkoma Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,900	$1.50	14d	1	0.16mi
11828 Mancos Trl Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,809	$1.23	45d	1	0.25mi
12408 Sunland Ave Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,875	$1.20	45d	1	0.54mi
12808 Kingsgate Dr Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1397	$2,000	$1.43	20d	1	0.59mi
12630 Carpenter Ln Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,879	$1.21	26d	1	0.66mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	4d	1	0.96mi
16617 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,095	$1.35	45d	1	1.03mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	14d	1	1.10mi
16612 Portage St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,000	$1.35	45d	1	1.12mi
16537 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1653	$2,249	$1.36	0d	1	1.16mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	45d	1	1.17mi
16009 Wanderer Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,999	$1.40	0d	1	1.17mi
1017 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,250	$1.30	4d	1	1.19mi
1049 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,195	$1.28	20d	1	1.24mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	13d	1	1.24mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	45d	1	1.30mi
804 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,285	$1.22	0d	1	1.34mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	45d	1	1.39mi
16029 Pemberly Way Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,095	$1.22	14d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   price $290,899
3. 2026-01-07
   listed $298,899 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,295
• − Property taxes: −$4,363
• − Insurance: −$1,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$8,463
• Taxable loss: −$8,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $290,899 NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $298,899 NTREIS