5203 Siesta Ln · Siesta Shores, TX 78076

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1992 9,000 sqft lot Est $122k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Upper with Lakefront opportunity and lots of potential! 2BR home features a Jack-and-Jill bath, open living area, tile floors, plenty of natural light throughout, views down to the lake and surrounding reservoir. Situated on a large lakefront lot, the property also offers a concrete drive and a covered area that can be used for parking or outdoor entertaining. Perfect for a weekend getaway, full-time residence, or future improvements. Plenty of outdoor space to enjoy lakefront living.

Key facts

• Large lakefront lot
• Tile floors
• Natural light

Tags

• JACK-AND-JILL BATH
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• TILE FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• VIEWS DOWN TO THE LAKE
• LARGE LAKEFRONT LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,334 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.60%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5222 Pety Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (-10%)	4mo	$110,000	$100	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $17,469
• Equity at exit: $29,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $49,742
• Equity at exit: $44,988

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,095/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $881

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $70,000 Active
17. 2024-01-04
    soldstatus
18. 2018-11-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,095 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,095 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,095
• − Insurance: −$1,852
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$251
• After-tax cash flow: $1,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Siesta Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1334
• US rank: #22988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Siesta Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $70,000 LAOR
• 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,095 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.