256 Kellyn Ct · Deerwood, TX 77306

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2009 6,995 sqft lot $113/sqft · 9% below area Est $219k · 9% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence in the gated Emerson Estates community. Offering an open floor plan of roughly 2,000 sq. ft., the home features tile flooring through the main living areas and granite countertops in all wet zones, giving the kitchen and baths a clean, upgraded feel. The primary suite includes a separate shower and garden tub with double vanities, while high ceilings and French doors off the breakfast area bring in plenty of natural light and views of the surrounding wooded neighborhood. Enjoy the peace of a cul-de-sac street with quick access to shopping, schools, and major roads for an easy commute. Floor plan in the photos are highly reliable but not guaranteed. It does not include the other bedroom since access was not available upon taking measurements

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tile flooring
• Separate shower

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• GARDEN TUB
• DOUBLE VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,528
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -8.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Kellyn Ct	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,766 (0%)	0mo	$199,000	$113	98
260 Kellyn Ct	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,740 (-2%)	7mo	$209,990	$121	89
16430 Tracy Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,667 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$132	77
236 Kellyn Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,592 (-10%)	8mo	$239,000	$150	74
16403 Tracy Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-8%)	16mo	$219,900	$136	70
16443 N Emerson Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,892 (+7%)	19mo	$99,900	$53	53
16448 Pisces Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,976 (+12%)	24mo	$199,000	$101	50
191 Carmen Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-11%)	19mo	$174,900	$112	48
194 Carmen Blvd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-11%)	23mo	$205,000	$131	46
16060 Tallis Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,014 (+14%)	4mo	$310,990	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,783
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,170
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,460/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $267	+0% $210	+5% $154	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $128	+0% $210	+5% $293	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $261	base $210	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	45d	1	1.14mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	1.16mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	45d	1	1.17mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence in the gated Emerson Estates community. Offering an open floor plan of roughly 2,000 sq. ft., the home features tile flooring through the main living areas and granite countertops in all wet zones, giving the kitchen and baths a clean, upgraded feel. The primary suite includes a separate shower and garden tub with double vanities, while high ceilings and French doors off the breakfast area bring in plenty of natural light and views of the surrounding wooded neighborhood. Enjoy the peace of a cul-de-sac street with quick access to shopping, schools, and major roads for an easy commute. Floor plan in the photos are highly reliable but not guaranteed. It does not include the other bedroom since access was not available upon taking measurements

2. 2026-04-30
   price $199,000 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence in the gated Emerson Estates community. Offering an open floor plan of roughly 2,000 sq. ft., the home features tile flooring through the main living areas and granite countertops in all wet zones, giving the kitchen and baths a clean, upgraded feel. The primary suite includes a separate shower and garden tub with double vanities, while high ceilings and French doors off the breakfast area bring in plenty of natural light and views of the surrounding wooded neighborhood. Enjoy the peace of a cul-de-sac street with quick access to shopping, schools, and major roads for an easy commute. Floor plan in the photos are highly reliable but not guaranteed. It does not include the other bedroom since access was not available upon taking measurements

3. 2026-04-23
   price $208,000 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence in the gated Emerson Estates community. Offering an open floor plan of roughly 2,000 sq. ft., the home features tile flooring through the main living areas and granite countertops in all wet zones, giving the kitchen and baths a clean, upgraded feel. The primary suite includes a separate shower and garden tub with double vanities, while high ceilings and French doors off the breakfast area bring in plenty of natural light and views of the surrounding wooded neighborhood. Enjoy the peace of a cul-de-sac street with quick access to shopping, schools, and major roads for an easy commute. Floor plan in the photos are highly reliable but not guaranteed. It does not include the other bedroom since access was not available upon taking measurements

4. 2026-04-11
   listed $209,000 Active 810-char remark

   Show marketing remark (810 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence in the gated Emerson Estates community. Offering an open floor plan of roughly 2,000 sq. ft., the home features tile flooring through the main living areas and granite countertops in all wet zones, giving the kitchen and baths a clean, upgraded feel. The primary suite includes a separate shower and garden tub with double vanities, while high ceilings and French doors off the breakfast area bring in plenty of natural light and views of the surrounding wooded neighborhood. Enjoy the peace of a cul-de-sac street with quick access to shopping, schools, and major roads for an easy commute. Floor plan in the photos are highly reliable but not guaranteed. It does not include the other bedroom since access was not available upon taking measurements

5. 2026-03-25
   historical
6. 2026-02-26
   price $199,000
7. 2026-02-19
   price $208,000
8. 2026-02-10
   listed $209,000 Active
9. 2009-08-21
   soldstatus
10. 2009-06-23
    historical
11. 2009-04-22
    listed $95,000
12. 2008-12-05
    historical
13. 2008-04-01
    soldstatus $275,000
14. 2008-02-08
    historical
15. 2007-12-18
    listed $89,000
16. 2007-02-01
    listed $18,000
17. 2006-12-31
    historical
18. 2006-08-14
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,460 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,460
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$153
• After-tax cash flow: $2,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+895.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2009-08-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-22 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2008-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-12-18 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2007-02-01 Listed $18,000 HARMLS
• 2006-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-14 Listed $20,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,460 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.