15005 Audubon Lake Blvd · Lyman, MS 39503

$208,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2009 0.51 ac lot $176/sqft · 13% below area Est $240k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom is move-in ready. It has a split floor plan, fireplace, and 2 car garage. There is a small backyard for low maintenance, however the property extends into the woods. Text Candi for your showing today.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Small backyard
• Fireplace

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE
• SMALL BACKYARD
• EXTENDS INTO THE WOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,164 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,364
• List price: $208,500
• Delta: -13.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14957 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+8%)	10mo	$216,500	$170	71
14794 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+11%)	11mo	$219,000	$166	64
14951 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+14%)	7mo	$189,999	$141	63
18225 Mill Cv	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+13%)	8mo	$232,000	$173	60
14286 Tori Dawn Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+11%)	4mo	$215,000	$164	53
18230 Mill Cv	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+14%)	14mo	$224,900	$167	52
18250 Tiffany Renee Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (+6%)	13mo	$174,900	$140	48
18346 Tiffany Renee Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+8%)	11mo	$205,000	$160	42
18320 Tiffany Renee Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+12%)	4mo	$177,500	$133	41
18311 Tarabrooke Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+13%)	12mo	$220,000	$165	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,611
• Equity at exit: $31,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $53,252
• Equity at exit: $18,027

Cash invested: $58,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 769
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,093
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $208,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $340	+0% $281	+5% $222	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $203	+0% $281	+5% $360	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $334	base $281	+0.5pp $227	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,125
• Closing costs: $6,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18231 Mill Cv Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	15d	1	0.16mi
18278 Tara Brooke Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	45d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom is move-in ready. It has a split floor plan, fireplace, and 2 car garage. There is a small backyard for low maintenance, however the property extends into the woods. Text Candi for your showing today.

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $208,500 Active 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   This beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom is move-in ready. It has a split floor plan, fireplace, and 2 car garage. There is a small backyard for low maintenance, however the property extends into the woods. Text Candi for your showing today.

3. 2020-03-05
   soldstatus 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Multiple Offer Deadline Feb 05, 2020, 5:44 PM Like New! New flooring, New Paint, New fixtures, New Appliances, and More! This 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms home is move in ready! Split floor plan, fireplace, 2 car garage and small backyard for low maintenance however the property extends into the woods. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

4. 2019-10-25
   listed $124,990 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Multiple Offer Deadline Feb 05, 2020, 5:44 PM Like New! New flooring, New Paint, New fixtures, New Appliances, and More! This 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms home is move in ready! Split floor plan, fireplace, 2 car garage and small backyard for low maintenance however the property extends into the woods. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

5. 2019-05-15
   soldstatus
6. 2009-05-20
   soldstatus
7. 2009-05-04
   listed $138,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 203.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,679
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$1,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$6,065
• Taxable loss: −$53
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $3,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+51.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-31 Listed $208,500 MLSU
• 2020-03-05 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-10-25 Listed $124,990 MLSU
• 2019-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-04 Listed $138,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.