2203 Dorado Dr · Mission, TX 78573

$299,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,663 sqft · Land · 72 Days on market

Built 2025 2,813 sqft lot $180/sqft · 27% above area Est $235k · 27% over $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Income producing property currently rented at $1,900 per month. Located in Sharyland’s desirable MAR subdivision, this brand-new 2-story luxury townhome offers modern architecture, premium finishes, and open-concept living contributing to the home’s low-maintenance appeal. Built with Hebel aerated concrete panels, it provides exceptional durability, fire resistance, and energy efficiency. Spray foam insulation throughout ensures year-round comfort and energy savings. Enjoy a prime location just minutes from H-E-B, Target, Starbucks, top-rated schools, parks, and trails. This gated community offers privacy, lush landscaping, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere—making Villa Catalina a truly special place to call home.

Key facts

• Modern architecture
• Premium finishes
• Open-concept living

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY
• MODERN ARCHITECTURE
• PREMIUM FINISHES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• HEBEL AERATED CONCRETE PANELS
• SPRAY FOAM INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,587 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,287
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: 27.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $141,563
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $430,366
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 623
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $243,228

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2225 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$2,100	$1.14	21d	1	0.09mi
2313 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	43d	1	0.14mi
2319 Dorado Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1583	$1,900	$1.20	43d	1	0.16mi
2609 May Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	43d	1	0.97mi
2401 E 27th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,850	$1.07	23d	1	1.01mi
2614 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1492	$3,000	$2.01	23d	1	1.01mi
2505 E Solar Dr Mission, TX	3.0	3.5	1550	$2,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.02mi
4616 Larkspur Ave Unit 3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,100	$1.04	43d	1	1.02mi
4501 Larkspur Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,290	$1.23	43d	1	1.13mi
2111 E 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	2239	$2,000	$0.89	43d	1	1.14mi
2514 Yarrow St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	1.14mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	14d	1	1.14mi
4705 Violet Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,100	$1.16	43d	1	1.25mi
4705 Violet Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	1.25mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	23d	1	1.28mi
4830 N 47th Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,222	$1.30	43d	1	1.30mi
4007 N 42nd Ln McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	43d	1	1.34mi
5125 Sequoia Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,600	$1.37	43d	1	1.37mi
4616 Xanthisma Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,950	$1.46	14d	1	1.39mi
2304 N 45th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,500	$1.50	19d	1	1.43mi
2705 Mimosa St #8 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,480	$1.19	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $299,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Income producing property currently rented at $1,900 per month. Located in Sharyland’s desirable MAR subdivision, this brand-new 2-story luxury townhome offers modern architecture, premium finishes, and open-concept living contributing to the home’s low-maintenance appeal. Built with Hebel aerated concrete panels, it provides exceptional durability, fire resistance, and energy efficiency. Spray foam insulation throughout ensures year-round comfort and energy savings. Enjoy a prime location just minutes from H-E-B, Target, Starbucks, top-rated schools, parks, and trails. This gated community offers privacy, lush landscaping, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere—making Villa Catalina a truly special place to call home.

16. 2026-02-19
    historical $1,900
17. 2026-01-21
    price $299,000
18. 2026-01-08
    listed $1,900
19. 2026-01-08
    listed $310,500 Active
20. 2025-08-23
    price $310,500
21. 2025-07-25
    listed $313,000 Active
22. 2024-12-11
    listed $313,000 Active
23. 2024-10-24
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2024-05-20
    status Pending
25. 2024-05-17
    price $1,134,000
26. 2023-06-09
    listed $63,000 Active
27. 2021-11-29
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,266/yr (+$355/mo · 353.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sharyland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839930
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,792
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5214
• State rank: #406 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+443.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $299,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-19 Rental Removed $1,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $299,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed for Rent $1,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $310,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $310,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $313,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $313,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-24 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-05-20 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $1,134,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-09 Listed $63,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-11-29 Listed $55,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,206 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.