44544 15th St E #9 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Condo public records · 278 Days on market

Built 1992 $340/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool
• Tennis courts

Tags

• WILLOW CREEK COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community of 260 units
• HOA & community: Part of Willow Creek association; Monthly association fee of $340; Community amenities: pool, tennis courts, multipurpose/recreational room, grounds maintenance, trash, water; association rules apply

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Community security / guard (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Attached condominium; Two-story unit; Entry level: 1
• Construction: House structure type; No accessory dwelling unit
• Exterior features: Community pool; Sidewalks; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating; Has fireplace in the living room
• Interior features: Two levels; Front door entry; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($172/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joshua Elementary (542 students, 95% FRL); Piute Middle (731 students, 96% FRL); Eastside High (2,650 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1178 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $220k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,874
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-58,163
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1178
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,234/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$340
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $77	+0% $14	+5% $-48	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-75	+0% $14	+5% $104	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $70	base $14	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,050	$1.93	0d	1	0.06mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,150	$2.02	26d	1	0.06mi
1628 Cactus Dr Apt B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,999	$2.00	0d	1	0.10mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	4d	1	0.15mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	23d	1	0.15mi
44436 15th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,024	$1.92	0d	1	0.19mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	0d	1	0.36mi
1827 East Avenue J Unit 2 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	18d	1	0.39mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	17d	1	0.39mi
1743 , CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,803	$1.93	0d	17	0.50mi
1004 E Newgrove St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,800	$2.41	0d	1	0.57mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	0d	1	0.60mi
44236 20th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,712	$1.90	0d	1	0.64mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	26d	1	0.75mi
43942 18th St E Unit 3 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	12d	1	0.85mi
43942 18th St E Unit 3 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	0d	1	0.85mi
817 E Kildare St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1179	$2,800	$2.37	0d	1	0.85mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	3d	1	0.91mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	23d	1	0.92mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	5d	1	0.92mi
43837 David St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	0d	1	0.98mi
2500 Topaz Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,800	$2.20	26d	1	0.99mi
44709 26th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,300	$1.75	20d	1	1.08mi
43658 Rogier St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,450	$1.72	0d	1	1.12mi
43702 Rembrandt St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,500	$1.97	20d	1	1.14mi
43711 Challenger Way Unit 3 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$2,100	$2.12	4d	1	1.25mi
44258 4th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,495	$2.13	0d	1	1.28mi
43833 Serenity Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,470	$2.29	12d	1	1.30mi
43833 Serenity Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,470	$2.29	0d	1	1.30mi
44221 4th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,400	$2.05	4d	1	1.33mi
44221 4th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,400	$2.05	0d	1	1.33mi
44221 4th St E Lancaster, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,988	$2.25	3d	2	1.33mi
550 E Avenue H14 Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,050	$2.41	0d	1	1.34mi
429 E Avenue J7 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,300	$1.99	0d	1	1.36mi
44514 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,646	$2.10	0d	1	1.40mi
44221 Foxton Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.5	1096	$3,590	$3.28	4d	1	1.42mi
44538 2nd St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,380	$1.89	0d	1	1.45mi
44119 Kirkland Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,750	$2.05	14d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $340 · $4,080/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 257 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $220,000 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

17. 2026-04-30
    price $220,000

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

18. 2026-03-23
    status Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

19. 2026-02-23
    status Active
20. 2026-02-03
    historical 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

21. 2026-01-21
    status Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

22. 2026-01-17
    historical 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

23. 2025-10-08
    status Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

24. 2025-09-18
    status Pending 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

25. 2025-08-27
    listed $230,000 Active
26. 2025-08-20
    listed $230,000 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Calling All Investors and First Time Buyers! This one is PRICED TO SELL! Needs some TLC. Bring your vision and make it your own. Spacious condo in the Willow Creek community. Features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths. Community amenities include a clubhouse, swimming pool and tennis courts. Schedule your appointment before its gone!

27. 2020-07-17
    listed $149,900 Active
28. 2017-07-10
    soldstatus $103,000
29. 2017-07-07
    soldstatus $103,000
30. 2017-05-18
    historical
31. 2017-05-17
    listed $102,000
32. 2010-04-12
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
33. 2010-03-25
    status Pending
34. 2010-02-23
    price $57,900
35. 2010-02-22
    status Active
36. 2010-02-05
    status Backup Offers Accepted
37. 2009-09-26
    listed $53,000 Active
38. 2005-03-10
    soldstatus $161,500
39. 2005-03-02
    soldstatus $161,500
40. 2004-12-13
    listed $154,500
41. 2004-06-29
    soldstatus $1,471,781

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,234 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,234 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,234
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,170
• − Management: −$2,170
• − HOA: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-85.1% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $220,000 AVMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2025-09-18 Pending — AVMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $230,000 AVMLS
• 2020-07-17 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2017-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-07 Sold (MLS) $103,000 CRMLS
• 2017-05-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-05-17 Listed $102,000 CRMLS
• 2010-04-12 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 2010-03-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2010-02-23 Price Changed $57,900 CRMLS
• 2010-02-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2010-02-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2009-09-26 Listed $53,000 CRMLS
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $161,500 Public Records
• 2005-03-02 Sold (MLS) $161,500 AVMLS
• 2004-12-13 Listed $154,500 AVMLS
• 2004-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,471,781 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,234 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.