15743 Tanya Cir · Houston, TX 77079

$350,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,871 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1981 2,753 sqft lot $122/sqft · 11% below area Est $392k · 11% under $300/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this beautiful home nestled in a private gated community. Thoughtfully updated and impeccably maintained, this residence features wood flooring throughout the main living areas, plush carpeting in the bedrooms, and a timeless neutral color palette that complements any style. The spacious chef’s kitchen is equipped with high-end stainless steel appliances and seamlessly flows into the bright breakfast area, creating the perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The private first-floor primary suite offers comfort and convenience, while two generously sized upstairs bedrooms each feature their own en-suite baths. Upstairs, a large gameroom provides endless possibiliti

Key facts

• $300 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Association managed by Creative Management; Gated community; Annual association fee of $3,600 covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two stories; Built in 1981; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Year built 1981
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Brick and stucco exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Two gas fireplaces; Double vanity in baths; Tub/shower combinations
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Maurice L Wolfe El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 405 students, 64% FRL); Memorial Parkway J H (math 61% / reading 59%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 787 students, 45% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 27% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $350k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,503 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,961
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -10.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15751 Tanya Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,849 (-1%)	4mo	$364,900	$128	91
15723 Tanya Cir	0.03mi	3/3.5	3,005 (+5%)	12mo	$360,000	$120	81
15698 Barkers Landing Rd	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,835 (-1%)	10mo	$457,000	$161	65
426 E Fair Harbor Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,675 (-7%)	2mo	$539,995	$202	57
15600 Barkers Landing Rd #2	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,542 (-12%)	8mo	$470,000	$185	46
1114 Enclave Sq W	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,483 (-14%)	21mo	$385,000	$155	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-88,638
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-142,408
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77079

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$646 /mo · $7,755/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $-354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,790

Max offer price $287,503

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-255	+0% $-354	+5% $-453	+10% $-552
Rent	-10% $-618	-5% $-486	+0% $-354	+5% $-222	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-265	base $-354	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
722 Crossroads Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	3530	$5,250	$1.49	45d	1	0.26mi
14736 Perthshire Rd Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2464	$2,300	$0.93	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $350,000 Active 1008-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    historical $350,000 1008-char remark
17. 2024-09-03
    historical $3,000
18. 2024-08-16
    price $3,000
19. 2024-06-13
    listed $3,175
20. 2018-06-25
    historical
21. 2018-06-06
    listed $359,000 Active
22. 2018-03-06
    soldstatus
23. 2003-02-20
    soldstatus
24. 1994-10-01
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,755 · $646/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,755 · $646/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$7,755
• − Insurance: −$2,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,208
• − Management: −$3,208
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$10,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,401
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,276
• Household income: $101,995
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.55%
• Current HPI: 286.7958
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $350,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listed for Rent $3,175 HARMLS
• 2018-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Listed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,755 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.