36976 State Route 12e · Clayton, NY 13624

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Country living just outside of Clayton is possible! Come check out this well-kept home with addition and garage ready for new owners! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath boasts a great layout and many updates! It has been kept in outstanding condition and has been a great rental for the current owners! 2 living rooms, the house is so cozy and inviting plus a nice, attached garage! Nice lot that has a shared driveway with neighbor and a new well will be going on (Property being subdivided off main parcel) Taxes TBD as its part of a larger parcel, call today!

Key facts

• Addition
• New well
• Attached garage

Tags

• WELL-KEPT HOME
• ADDITION
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• SHARED DRIVEWAY
• NEW WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Dirt driveway; Leased propane tank; Barn(s); Outbuilding; Irregular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air; Hot water heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Country kitchen; Combined living and dining area; Main level primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.5% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#621 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Guardino Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 293 students, 44% FRL); Thousand Islands Middle School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C+, #233 of 729 statewide, top 32%, 209 students, 50% FRL); Thousand Islands High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 247 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,092 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $77,307
• Equity at exit: $154,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $236,440
• Equity at exit: $324,202

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13624

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $149,822

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-146	+0% $-208	+5% $-270	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-262	+0% $-208	+5% $-153	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-117	-0.5pp $-162	base $-208	+0.5pp $-254	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 561-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $179,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$1,566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thousand Islands Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607650
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,233
• Composite: 49.94/100
• National rank: #1930
• State rank: #262 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #621
• US rank: #11271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,438

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Current HPI: 418.5008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $179,900 CNYIS