20822 Blackberry Grv · San Antonio, TX 78264

$204,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $110/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est. $51/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Morrow - This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $161,227 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,101
• List price: $204,999
• Delta: 0.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20926 Sumac Grv	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,867 (0%)	2mo	$210,999	$113	94
3609 Mccrae Xing	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,867 (0%)	1mo	$213,999	$115	93
20819 Pinon Grv	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,867 (0%)	6mo	$213,999	$115	91
20807 Pinon Grv	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,867 (0%)	5mo	$228,999	$123	91
21053 Sumac Grv	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,867 (0%)	5mo	$206,999	$111	88
20930 Sumac Grv	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	70
20918 Sumac Grv	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	70
21136 Prairie Rose	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+2%)	3mo	$469,990	$246	69
21002 Sumac Grv	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	3mo	$200,999	$126	68
21034 Sumac Grv	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	4mo	$195,999	$122	63
21120 Prairie Rose	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+14%)	0mo	$509,990	$240	61
21045 Sumac Grv	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	7mo	$195,999	$122	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,832
• Equity at exit: $103,280

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $86,313
• Equity at exit: $168,401

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,858

Max offer price $176,926

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-123	+0% $-194	+5% $-265	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-258	+0% $-194	+5% $-130	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-142	base $-194	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	0.09mi
20414 Deets Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,750	$0.94	4d	1	0.49mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	45d	1	0.78mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	25d	1	1.00mi
20622 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,550	$1.01	45d	1	1.01mi
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	45d	1	1.06mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	25d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $204,999 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,999 Price Change 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,999 Price Change 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $204,999 Price Change 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $204,999 Price Change 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $204,999 Price Change 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $204,999 Price Change 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   price $204,999 Price Change 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $205,999 Price Change 40 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,999 Price Change 39 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    price $232,999 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    The Morrow - This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-04-30
    price $235,999 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    The Morrow - This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-04-22
    listed $238,999 New 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    The Morrow - This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,418
• After-tax cash flow: $-910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home boasts a modern and spacious design, with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The property is move-in ready and offers high ROI for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $232,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $235,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Listed $238,999 LERA