2618 NW 77th St · Lawton, OK 73505

$156,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1976 1.00 ac lot Est $193k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very cute house in original condition. This home has been lovingly maintained for many years by the owner. It is in immaculate condition and is just waiting for a new generation of love. This home is so cozy, it has an open concept kitchen, and livingroom space with an eat-in kitchen and a small breakfast bar. The Livingroom is connected to a cozy little screened in porch area. There is plenty of storage in this home, and the home has a formal dining room, or a second living area that connects to the kitchen as well. If you would like to set up a private viewing, please contact Melody at 580-284-2345.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Open concept kitchen
• Plenty of storage

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($167/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hugh Bish Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 358 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Ms (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 1,035 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Hs (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #215 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 1,350 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,718 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2802 NW 75th St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,543 (-2%)	2mo	$179,000	$116	90
2608 NW 78th St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-5%)	7mo	$167,000	$111	84
7823 NW Morrocco Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+6%)	3mo	$200,000	$120	78
2318 NW 77th St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+8%)	6mo	$110,000	$65	72
2612 NW 77th St	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-11%)	8mo	$168,000	$120	72
7214 NW Crestwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	4mo	$190,000	$119	71
2412 NW 80th St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	3mo	$180,000	$129	68
7315 NW Andrews Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-5%)	4mo	$184,974	$123	59
7610 NW Kingsbury Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	4mo	$200,000	$125	59
7608 NW Kingsbury Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-5%)	4mo	$202,950	$135	54
7331 NW Andrews	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	8mo	$179,000	$128	48
1532 NW 81st St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	8mo	$195,000	$139	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,669
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,044
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $58	+0% $14	+5% $-30	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-36	+0% $14	+5% $64	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $54	base $14	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $156,000
3. 2026-03-25
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2025-12-02
   listed $156,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,404 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 21.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$2,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$609
• After-tax cash flow: $776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $156,000 LBRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $145,000 LBRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $156,000 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2017): $1,154 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.