4826 Mayflower St · Houston, TX 77033

$145,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2001 5,828 sqft lot Est $165k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Close to dining
• 5,828 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT REDESIGN
• CLOSE TO MAJOR SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,232/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.91%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7606 Darnay Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,385 (+5%)	2mo	$129,000	$93	70
7338 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-7%)	2mo	$220,000	$179	64
5103 Northridge Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (+4%)	3mo	$195,900	$143	64
5225 Longmeadow St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (-2%)	2mo	$138,000	$107	61
4821 Alvin St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-1%)	4mo	$174,000	$133	60
4525 Newberry St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-11%)	8mo	$245,000	$208	58
5123 Willow Glen Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,450 (+10%)	0mo	$99,497	$69	55
7330 Hurtgen Forest Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-12%)	3mo	$154,900	$134	53
5009 Bataan Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-7%)	2mo	$130,500	$106	52
4737 Alvin St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-8%)	4mo	$95,000	$78	44
4423 Stassen St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-10%)	8mo	$149,000	$125	41
5318 Longmeadow St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,138 (-14%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $22,988
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $97,235
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,630/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,422

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	0.26mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.29mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.30mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	0.32mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	0.32mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	0.32mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.33mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	43d	1	0.35mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	43d	1	0.40mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.43mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.56mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	12d	1	0.57mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	0.63mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	43d	1	0.63mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	16d	1	0.73mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.78mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	20d	1	0.79mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	20d	1	0.79mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	14d	1	0.80mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	17d	1	0.85mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,355	$3.92	1d	1	0.91mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	14d	1	0.96mi
5317 Chennault Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,999	$1.24	43d	1	0.96mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	43d	1	0.99mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.04mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.07mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	1.09mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	1.09mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	3d	1	1.14mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	43d	1	1.14mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	17d	1	1.17mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	13d	1	1.17mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	1.18mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.20mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	24d	1	1.20mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.22mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	43d	1	1.22mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	43d	1	1.26mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	43d	1	1.30mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-26
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2001-02-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,630 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,630 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,630
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $6,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2001-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,630 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.