411 W Adams St · Butler, MO 64730

$29,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 822 sqft · Other public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1930 0.47 ac lot $35/sqft · 75% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2 BD, 1 BA, fixer upper, large lot, selling as-is

Key facts

• Large lot
• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Glory Realty
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: City/public water (verify); Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Bungalow style
• Construction: Lap siding exterior; Composition roof; Home age approximately 76–100 years
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 132 x 154 feet; Lot about 20,328 square feet; Located inside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; No central cooling
• Interior features: Bungalow floor plan; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($910 rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 2.2% in Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#362 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Butler R-V (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 324 in MO (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Bates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($200 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bates County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.51%
• DSCR: 4.45
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,591
• List price: $29,000
• Delta: -77.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $49,207
• Equity at exit: $26,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.3%
• Equity multiple: 15.61×
• Total profit: $118,659
• Equity at exit: $56,341

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64730

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $361/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $246

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $541	-5% $533	+0% $524	+5% $516	+10% $508
Rent	-10% $453	-5% $489	+0% $524	+5% $560	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $532	base $524	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $29,000 Active 49-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$361
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$873
• − Management: −$873
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $6,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $4,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butler R-V
• NCES district ID: 2906360
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,896
• Composite: 28.63/100
• National rank: #6705
• State rank: #233 of 324 in MO

Livability — Butler

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #15944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butler, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,550

Population outlook (Bates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,295 people
• By 2030: 14,644 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 13,282 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 11,944 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 9,442 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 7,372 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bates

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.7% · R 80.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+54.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.64%
• Current HPI: 251.7196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $29,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $361 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.