13875 Meda Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1999 6,900 sqft lot Est $105k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tall Pine Estates, a welcoming all-ages manufactured home park nestled in the beautiful California foothills. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this charming cottage-style home offers great curb appeal and a warm, inviting feel throughout. Recent improvements include wall-to-wall luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh interior paint, painted kitchen cabinets, and an updated hall bathroom. Previous owners also completed a newer roof and exterior paint, adding to the home's move-in-ready appeal. Inside, you'll find 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite with dual closets, a ceiling fan, and a relaxing soaking tub. The open living area is filled with natural li

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Fresh interior paint
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• PAINTED KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED HALL BATHROOM
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.1584 acres
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount recorded separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Propane service available; Public water; Public sewer; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide; Built in 1999
• Construction: Composition roof; Manufactured by Champion (Infinity II model)
• Exterior features: Corner lot with a regular shape; Covered porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Free standing refrigerator; Synthetic countertops; Disposal; Insulated water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central heating with propane
• Interior features: Deck attached to the living area; Covered, railed and enclosed deck/porch
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Ridge Union Elementary (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #214 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Sierra Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #354 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 319 students, 34% FRL); Magnolia Intermediate (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 379 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.71%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,832
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10043 Lode Line Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$179,000	$143	90
10064 Lode Line Way #30	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+5%)	9mo	$120,000	$91	82
13927 Meda Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	1mo	$140,000	$102	80
10064 Quartz Mine Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	20mo	$105,000	$84	77
13947 Meda Dr #53	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	21mo	$99,000	$79	77
14338 State Highway 49 #65	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	6mo	$75,000	$63	70
13948 Golden Star Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-11%)	8mo	$139,900	$126	69
10058 Golden Polaris Pl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	19mo	$161,500	$120	68
10204 Stone Arch Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	12mo	$89,000	$71	53
14338 State Highway 49 #67	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-15%)	2mo	$54,900	$52	50
10186 Stone Arch Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+12%)	10mo	$87,500	$63	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $53,401
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $145,376
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $407/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $1,208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,290	-5% $1,249	+0% $1,208	+5% $1,167	+10% $1,126
Rent	-10% $1,002	-5% $1,105	+0% $1,208	+5% $1,311	+10% $1,414
Rate	-1.0pp $1,281	-0.5pp $1,245	base $1,208	+0.5pp $1,171	+1.0pp $1,132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    price $145,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $407 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,102 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 170.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$407
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $12,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,084
• After-tax cash flow: $11,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Ridge Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0630930
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,524
• Composite: 36.75/100
• National rank: #4580
• State rank: #214 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $407 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.