2650 W Union Hills Dr #319 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$59,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition Est $65k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seize the chance to own this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're greeted by an attached carport and an inviting front porch. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with wood panel walls, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. You'll also find a dedicated family room for relaxing evenings with loved ones. The well-appointed kitchen comes with ample wood cabinetry, built-in appliances, a pantry, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a built-in closet with mirrored doors that enhance the sense of space and a private bathroom with double vanities. Unwind at the end of a long day on the cozy screened patio,

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Built-in appliances
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• ATTACHED CARPORT
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• DEDICATED FAMILY ROOM
• AMPLE WOOD CABINETRY
• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Land lease: $982 monthly; No association fees included; Community amenities: pool, golf, gated community, community spa (heated), community laundry, biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; City water and private well listed as water sources
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in gas oven; Multiple ovens
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bath; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Full bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Screened-in patio (listed under exterior but accessed from interior features)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.82%
• DSCR: 4.20
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #8	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	98
2650 W Union Hills Dr #138	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	5mo	$74,000	$48	92
2650 W Union Hills Dr #131	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-3%)	8mo	$60,500	$41	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #367	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (0%)	17mo	$112,000	$73	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #258	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-3%)	12mo	$80,000	$54	76
2650 W Union Hills Dr #114	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	13mo	$29,000	$20	75
2650 W Union Hills Dr #100	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$99,000	$69	73
2650 W Union Hills Dr #33	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	13mo	$55,000	$38	70
2650 W Union Hills Dr #215	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$37,500	$28	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #43	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-12%)	4mo	$50,000	$37	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #185	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	18mo	$20,000	$14	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #38	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-8%)	15mo	$97,500	$69	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $48,256
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $103,193
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $989

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,029	-5% $1,009	+0% $989	+5% $968	+10% $948
Rent	-10% $849	-5% $919	+0% $989	+5% $1,059	+10% $1,128
Rate	-1.0pp $1,018	-0.5pp $1,004	base $989	+0.5pp $973	+1.0pp $958

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	19d	2	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	3d	17	0.46mi
18422 N 30th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,275	$1.42	25d	1	0.48mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	2d	80	0.56mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	44d	1	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	3d	19	0.58mi
2953 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,095	$1.28	44d	1	0.71mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	8d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	17d	1	0.79mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	2d	69	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	44d	1	0.85mi
2431 W Shady Glen Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,155	$1.36	8d	1	0.92mi
3338 W Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,375	$1.14	8d	1	1.01mi
3250 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	25d	1	1.05mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	44d	1	1.09mi
2018 W Meadow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,005	$1.21	8d	1	1.16mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	44d	1	1.17mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	44d	1	1.18mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	3d	14	1.19mi
1750 W Union Hills Dr #91 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,900	$1.13	5d	1	1.20mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	44d	1	1.29mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	25d	1	1.33mi
17402 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1194	$1,450	$1.21	2d	2	1.34mi
16623 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,050	$1.43	1d	1	1.38mi
17211 N 35th Ave Unit C110 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,895	$1.68	44d	1	1.39mi
3637 W Angela Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,195	$1.31	19d	1	1.40mi
1708 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,761	$1.33	8d	1	1.41mi
2142 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	22d	1	1.42mi
1547 W Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,195	$1.67	44d	1	1.43mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,796	$1.25	8d	1	1.44mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	4d	1	1.46mi
3011 W Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,945	$1.47	8d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $11,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,788
• After-tax cash flow: $9,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its resale value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Severe wear and tear.
• Major Kitchen appliances — Outdated and possibly non-functional.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Older and possibly non-functional.
• Major Landscaping — Dry patches and overgrown areas need attention.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and some discoloration.
• Moderate Carpet — Worn and needs replacement.
• Moderate Paint — Dated and worn wood panel walls need fresh paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances will attract more buyers.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements will enhance curb appeal.
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint will make the interior look more appealing.
• Resale New carpet — Fresh carpet will improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Resale Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures will make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale New cabinets — Fresh cabinets will make the kitchen look more modern and functional.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Severe wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen appliances · Outdated and possibly non-functional.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Older and possibly non-functional.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Dry patches and overgrown areas need attention.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and some discoloration.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpet · Worn and needs replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Dated and worn wood panel walls need fresh paint.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$69,000–245,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances will attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements will enhance curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint will make the interior look more appealing. ↑
• Resale New carpet — Fresh carpet will improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Resale Replace dated bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures will make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale New cabinets — Fresh cabinets will make the kitchen look more modern and functional. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $59,000 ARMLS