26817 Long St · Patton Village, TX 77372

$214,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Land · 168 Days on market

Built 2025 0.92 ac lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $225k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new 2025 mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, situated on a spacious unrestricted 1-acre lot in Splendora. Enjoy the ease of a new driveway and modern open-concept living and dining areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bar-style kitchen includes brand-new appliances and offers plenty of prep space. The oversized primary suite provides room for a sitting area, along with a large walk-in closet. Move-in ready with room to grow. Peaceful country living with no HOA restrictions! With easy access to Highway 59 and local amenities. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own land in one of Splendora’s most desirable areas, schedule your showing today and envision the possibilities that await!

Key facts

• New mobile home
• Bar-style kitchen
• New driveway

Tags

• NEW MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS UNRESTRICTED LOT
• NEW DRIVEWAY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• BAR-STYLE KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($466/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,949
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -4.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-32,175
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-24,119
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,174

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2407 S Colosseum Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2074	$3,300	$1.59	43d	1	0.79mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$1,983	$1.01	10d	1	0.96mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	4d	1	0.96mi
634 Magnolia Bnd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,485	$1.02	20d	1	1.04mi
630 Magnolia Bnd Roman Forest, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,545	$1.07	24d	1	1.05mi
100 Artesian Way Roman Forest, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$1,495	$0.95	43d	1	1.28mi
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,675	$1.07	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,900 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    price $218,405 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, situated on a spacious unrestricted 1-acre lot in Splendora. Enjoy the ease of a new driveway and modern open-concept living and dining areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bar-style kitchen includes brand-new appliances and offers plenty of prep space. The oversized primary suite provides room for a sitting area, along with a large walk-in closet. Move-in ready with room to grow. Peaceful country living with no HOA restrictions! With easy access to Highway 59 and local amenities. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own land in one of Splendora’s most desirable areas, schedule your showing today and envision the possibilities that await!

16. 2026-02-03
    price $229,900 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, situated on a spacious unrestricted 1-acre lot in Splendora. Enjoy the ease of a new driveway and modern open-concept living and dining areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bar-style kitchen includes brand-new appliances and offers plenty of prep space. The oversized primary suite provides room for a sitting area, along with a large walk-in closet. Move-in ready with room to grow. Peaceful country living with no HOA restrictions! With easy access to Highway 59 and local amenities. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own land in one of Splendora’s most desirable areas, schedule your showing today and envision the possibilities that await!

17. 2026-01-01
    listed $234,900 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Brand new 2025 mobile home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, situated on a spacious unrestricted 1-acre lot in Splendora. Enjoy the ease of a new driveway and modern open-concept living and dining areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bar-style kitchen includes brand-new appliances and offers plenty of prep space. The oversized primary suite provides room for a sitting area, along with a large walk-in closet. Move-in ready with room to grow. Peaceful country living with no HOA restrictions! With easy access to Highway 59 and local amenities. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own land in one of Splendora’s most desirable areas, schedule your showing today and envision the possibilities that await!

18. 2025-12-30
    historical
19. 2025-06-06
    listed $234,900 Active
20. 2025-02-25
    soldstatus
21. 1995-02-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,042/yr (+$254/mo · 341.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$6,193
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$2,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patton Village, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $218,405 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.