2169 Firethorn Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1953 3,920 sqft lot Est $207k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in this newly renovated 3 bedroom 1.5 bath end of group home! Fresh paint and flooring, large living room, separate dining room, huge fully finished basement with a separate laundry room, covered rear patio for entertaining, detached 2 car garage and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Colonial townhouse
• Rear-entry garage

Tags

• COLONIAL TOWNHOUSE
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• REAR-ENTRY GARAGE
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership interest: Ground Rent
• Financial info: Ground rent exists; payment is semi-annual

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with rear entry and additional storage (4 garage spaces); Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating and hot water; Electric cooling
• Home design: End of Row/Townhouse; Year built estimated
• Construction: Brick construction; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: End of row townhouse; Above grade and below grade structures; Ground rent (paid semi-annually)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Basement: Partially finished basement; Sump pump; Walkout stairs
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile/brick; Laminate plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Traditional floor plan; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Gas dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 491 students, 87% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 39% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 252 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $225k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,713 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2151 Coralthorn Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,194 (+4%)	2mo	$185,500	$155	89
349 Dark Head Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	6mo	$240,000	$208	84
2165 Firethorn Rd	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,024 (-11%)	6mo	$135,000	$132	74
2169 Redthorn Rd	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,272 (+10%)	5mo	$161,000	$127	72
2247 Graythorn Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+10%)	2mo	$233,000	$183	70
404 Grovethorn	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,274 (+11%)	4mo	$220,000	$173	67
2134 Firethorn Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	11mo	$229,900	$180	65
53 S Hawthorne Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	9mo	$222,100	$217	58
2134 Redthorn Rd	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,324 (+15%)	11mo	$233,620	$176	57
133 Riverthorn Rd	0.14mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (+15%)	8mo	$147,500	$111	55
658 Kingston Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-12%)	6mo	$205,000	$201	52
710 Kingston Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+14%)	1mo	$239,900	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,683
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-31,000
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,388/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,864

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $224	+0% $160	+5% $97	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $79	+0% $160	+5% $242	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $218	base $160	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	45d	1	0.06mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	12d	1	0.12mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.17mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	0.20mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	25d	1	0.21mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.23mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	45d	1	0.24mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	45d	1	0.26mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.27mi
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	25d	1	0.39mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	12d	1	0.55mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	21d	7	0.61mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$2,249	$2.25	0d	9	0.70mi
19 Mooring Ct Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,900	$1.32	0d	1	0.76mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.79mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	6d	1	0.82mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	45d	1	0.84mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	23d	1	0.92mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	45d	1	0.98mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	0d	1	0.99mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	23d	1	1.00mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	1.03mi
1314 First Rd Middle River, MD	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	0d	1	1.03mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	4d	24	1.05mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	45d	1	1.08mi
2 Driftwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,168	$1.62	0d	5	1.08mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	45d	1	1.11mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	45d	1	1.16mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	45d	1	1.19mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	1.21mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	1.26mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	3d	1	1.26mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	6d	1	1.30mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	6d	1	1.31mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	5d	1	1.31mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	6d	1	1.39mi
1460 Hadwick Dr Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	661	$1,308	$1.98	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 694-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,388 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: +$32/yr (+$3/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,388
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $2,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+240.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-19 Coming Soon $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $99,900 MRIS
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-04-13 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-04-06 Price Changed $99,900 MRIS
• 2015-03-04 Listed $114,900 MRIS
• 2015-03-04 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-09-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-05-19 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-02-02 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-07-29 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-06-25 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-06-25 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2012-06-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-04-02 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-02-08 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-12-29 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-07-07 Listed — MRIS
• 2011-07-07 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,388 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.