1802 Junker St · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$224,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1972 8,999 sqft lot $106/sqft · at area comps Est $235k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4th Bedroom! The Primary Bedroom is served by two Walk-in Closets and an exit door opening to the long Covered Patio. Other exciting features are two full baths. Generous backyard

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Covered patio
• Generous backyard

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($42/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Travis El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 426 students, 91% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 43% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,647
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1606 Caslyn Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,112 (-1%)	8mo	$299,000	$142	71
2451 Teresa Dr	0.26mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,934 (-9%)	1mo	$244,900	$127	67
1801 Manor Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (-6%)	16mo	$310,000	$155	56
5013 Cotter Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,210 (+4%)	13mo	$298,000	$135	55
3502 Glenmeadow Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-11%)	3mo	$280,000	$148	54
1602 Village Court Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,827 (-14%)	10mo	$290,000	$159	51
1422 Township Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-14%)	1mo	$290,000	$160	47
5106 Alderney Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,028 (-5%)	5mo	$279,499	$138	47
1205 Moray Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,442 (+15%)	3mo	$270,000	$111	42
2218 Fallen Reed Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,317 (+9%)	17mo	$325,000	$140	40
1411 Township Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (-12%)	7mo	$285,000	$152	39
4409 W Parma Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-11%)	16mo	$265,000	$141	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,471
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-60,830
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,337/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,175

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $67	+0% $4	+5% $-60	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-83	+0% $4	+5% $90	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $61	base $4	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3412 Avenue R Unit R Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,775	$1.21	45d	1	0.51mi
2122 Hackberry Bank Ln Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,799	$1.11	5d	1	0.57mi
1317 Tobola St Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2568	$2,995	$1.17	7d	1	0.68mi
5003 E Parma Dr Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2442	$2,250	$0.92	45d	1	0.74mi
2020 Ward St Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$1,850	$1.06	45d	1	0.88mi
2009 Tremont Ct Rosenberg, TX	3.0	1.5	1425	$1,701	$1.19	24d	1	1.11mi
1803 Cypress Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,875	$1.17	26d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $234,900 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    4th Bedroom! The Primary Bedroom is served by two Walk-in Closets and an exit door opening to the long Covered Patio. Other exciting features are two full baths. Generous backyard

16. 2026-03-06
    price $244,900 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    4th Bedroom! The Primary Bedroom is served by two Walk-in Closets and an exit door opening to the long Covered Patio. Other exciting features are two full baths. Generous backyard

17. 2026-01-26
    listed $254,900 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    4th Bedroom! The Primary Bedroom is served by two Walk-in Closets and an exit door opening to the long Covered Patio. Other exciting features are two full baths. Generous backyard

18. 2026-01-23
    soldstatus
19. 1995-07-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,337 · $445/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,337 · $445/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$5,337
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,337 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.